Teams going home down 2-0 in the NBA Finals and then favored in Game 3 have gone 6-0 outright since 2003. NBA odds make the Dallas Mavericks home favorites over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night, but our Celtics vs. Mavs predictions expect Derrick White to bring the fight to Texas.
But a stronger trend is available to use in our free NBA picks before tip on Wednesday, June 12, at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Celtics vs Mavs prediction
My best bet
Derrick White Over 14.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to how evenly the Boston Celtics' offense is distributed. Continuing to put Jaylen Brown’s points prop at 21.5 and Jayson Tatum’s at 25.5 overlooks how many players can fill it up for the Celtics.
Tatum has cleared that modest total just 10 times in 16 postseason games, and that's not the indictment of him that Jason Kidd would like it to be. It has not been a coincidence that Tatum has averaged 6.3 assists throughout the playoffs, compared to his 4.9 in the regular season.
Meanwhile, Boston’s supposed role players are shining. Jrue Holiday starred in Game 2, scoring 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting, part of averaging 13.5 points in the playoffs compared to his 12.5 in the regular season.
Most consistently, Derrick White continues to score. His usage rate spiked when Kristaps Porzingis injured his calf in the first round, and even Porzingis’s return in the Finals hasn't slowed White, scoring 15 points in Game 1 and 18 in Game 2.
Now Porzingis may be limited once more, suffering a clear aggravation of something in his leg late on Sunday. If he is, then White’s import will rise anew.
But even if Porzingis is full-go, realize White has cleared this points prop in 11 of 16 postseason games, including each of his last three and six of his last seven. His 3-pointer rate has not fallen in the Finals, averaging 9.0 looks per game in the first three rounds and now going 7-of-18 through two games. Those shots alone endanger White’s points prop; he's hit at least five 3-pointers three times in these playoffs.
The Dallas Mavericks have just enough quality defenders to pester Tatum and Brown, sometimes also Porzingis. The Mavs do not have enough to cover all aspects of the Celtics’ equal-opportunity offense, and that has been to White’s benefit. It should continue to be.
Celtics vs Mavs same-game parlay (SGP)
Derrick White Over 14.5 points
Jayson Tatum Over 5.5 assists
Mavericks moneyline
If Boston’s shooters had been more competent in Game 1, Tatum would have cleared double-digit assists in both Games 1 and 2. He had five assists in Game 1, plus 14 more potential assists. The Celtics simply missed a pile of shots. He then tallied 12 assists in Game 2.
Tatum spreading the ball around works best for Boston, not to mention it works out well for someone like White.
Adding that passer-shooter combination to the Mavericks moneyline boosts this same-game parlay’s payout, given how White’s and Tatum’s success should logically run counter to Dallas winning the game.
Teams down 0-2 are 21-12 in a Game 3, giving plenty of reason to believe in the Mavs, despite the convincing nature of the two games in Boston. Furthermore, Dallas is 3-0 in Game 3s this postseason.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Celtics vs Mavs odds
Celtics vs Mavs live odds
Get the latest Celtics vs Mavs NBA playoff odds for Game 3
Celtics vs Mavs opening odds
- Spread: Boston +1.5 (-110) | Dallas-1.5 (+110)
- Moneyline: Boston +100 | Dallas -120
- Over/Under: Over 212.5 (-110) | Under 212.5 (-110)
Celtics vs Mavs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Despite losing the first two games of this series by 18 and then seven points, the Mavs opened as 1.5 to 2-point favorites late on Sunday night. That ticked as low as -1 at some sportsbooks early on Monday, but rallied to -1.5 by the end of your week's first cup of coffee.
- A line favoring Dallas is very much an exaggerated jump in the spread, given Boston was a 6.5- and 7-point favorite in the first two games. Adjusting that kind of spread for usual homecourt advantages would have made the Celtics 1.5- or 2-point favorites in Game 3. The incentive of the 2-0 deficit explains the additional Mavs’ expected edge.
- The total opened at 212.5 and ticked upward to 213 during the overnight before slipping back to its opening number throughout Monday.
Celtics vs Mavs trend
Since remaking the roster at the trade deadline, Dallas is 14-8 against the spread at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Mavs.
Celtics vs Mavs game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Celtics vs Mavs latest injuries
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