Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Porter Jr. Regains Scoring Groove

The Denver Nuggets are heavy favorites on the NBA Championship odds board and could be just a few hours away from claiming their first NBA title. Game 5 of the NBA Finals swings back to Ball Arena Monday night, where Denver has tasted defeat only once during the playoffs.

The rare flavor was served up at the hands of the Miami Heat, who stole Game 2 in the thin Rocky Mountain air. Miami was an 8-point road underdog in that game but is now catching even more points from the NBA odds, down 3-1 in the series following two rough losses at home.

The Heat hope their role players make the trip to Denver after their support staff went MIA in South Beach the past two contests. Miami is getting great work from standouts Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, but the rest of the roster has suddenly cooled at the worst possible time.

I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for Game 5 of the NBA Finals and give my best free NBA picks for the Heat vs. Nuggets.

Also, check out our best Heat vs. Nuggets NBA player props and Nikola Jokic player prop picks for tonight's game!

Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 odds

Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 predictions

"You could not live with your own failure. Where did that bring you? Back to me"

Thanos wasn’t talking about betting on Michael Porter Jr. props when he delivered the cold-ass quote to the Avengers in “End Game”. But anyone who’s followed the projections for the Denver Nuggets’ mercurial forward and bet Over on his scoring props feels like they’ve taken a shit-kicking from the purple mad titan.

Porter Jr. has gone Under his scoring prop in all four games of the NBA Finals, including Games 1 and 2 when I followed the models and matchup forecasts which were calling for as many as 20 points from the 6-foot-10 forward. 

He fell short of 15.5 points in Game 1 (14 points), didn’t even sniff his point total of 16.5 (four points) in Game 2, had two effing points against a prop of 14.5 O/U in Game 3, and broke hearts with 11 points against an 11.5-point O/U in Game 4.

Where does that bring us? Back to MPJ.

Porter Jr.’s piss-poor efforts have salted the earth when it comes to NBA Finals prop betting, with his scoring total for Game 5 down to 10.5 points (Over -120). He’s shooting just 29% for the series, including a frozen 3-for-22 count on triples that makes my sensitive teeth hurt just writing it.

His horrific play in the finals has the Denver faithful calling for a lineup change, and rightfully so. However, Nuggets head coach Michael Malone is not giving up on Porter Jr. just yet.

Ahead of Game 4, Malone told the media that he’s instructed Porter Jr. to be aggressive and shoot the ball with confidence. The Missouri product followed suit with 11 points on 4-for-10 shooting, scoring most of those on cuts inside and finishing at the rim along with getting to the stripe for 3 of 4 foul shots Friday.

While MPJ’s player modeling isn’t what it was heading into the finals, he’s still projected for at least 13 points for Monday’s Game 5 back in Denver. Some forecasts are calling for closer to 17 points while my number sits at a cautiously optimistic 14.6.

The upside is there for Porter Jr., who averaged 14.3 points and shot almost 41% from 3-point range in the first three rounds of the playoffs — a mark that jumped to 45.7% inside Ball Arena. With the series returning to Denver and his teammates and coaches pulling for him, expect MPJ to continue to get looks from long range.

"I have no doubt — and I mean this, I have zero doubt in my mind — that Michael Porter is going to have a big game and help us win a championship," Malone told the press.

For the sake of all of us who have been burned by MPJ’s ill-timed scoring slump, let’s hope that’s Game 5.

My best bet: Michael Porter Jr. Over 10.5 points (-120) 

Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 same-game parlay

Michael Porter Jr. Over 10.5 points

Aaron Gordon Over 6.5 rebounds 

Max Strus Over 2+ made threes

+475 at DraftKings

So help me God, if I lose another Porter Jr. point prop bet…

The MPJ scoring market has soured on the Nuggets' lanky forward, but projections call for more than enough to clear a number that has dropped as much as six points from its highs earlier in the finals. His teammates have faith in him and should Denver start to run away, Malone could run some “feel good” sets for his struggling shooter.

Gordon was an offensive monster last time out and still topped his rebound total of 6.5 boards (finished with seven) despite shooting the ball 15 times. I don’t see him being that active in the offense in Game 5, but his size and athleticism make him a constant force on the glass. He’ll snatch at least seven boards again Monday.

Strus is catching a lot of shit after going just 1-for-7 on 3-point attempts the past two games. However, if Miami is going to avoid elimination, it will need triples — and lots of them. Given this bigger spread, the Heat will be chucking it. Despite posting a goose egg in Game 4, Strus' player models are still calling for two or more 3-point makes on Monday. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 spread and Over/Under analysis

Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra is running out of options, and it shows with oddsmakers opening the Miami Heat as big as 9.5-point road underdogs for Game 5. That spread has since slimmed to as low as +8.5 at some books, but desperation is only going to be worth so much.

That’s especially true when you consider Spoelstra has thrown everything at the Nuggets but keeps coming up short, due in large part to his red-hot role players getting KO’d like “Burnie” picking a fight with the “Notorious CMG”.

Guys like Gabe Vincent and Max Strus are a collective 4-for-27 from the floor the past two games, and Miami went from the best 3-point shooting team in the postseason to a frigid 19-for-60 from beyond the arc in Games 3 and 4 (31.6%).

It would seem like the other shoe has dropped for the Heat, who have played well above expectations after earning the No. 8 seed via the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. That’s not taking anything away from the Nuggets' defense, however.

Denver checked Miami to less than 41% shooting in those two games in South Beach and don’t hand out any freebies either, limiting points off turnovers as well as any second-chance buckets. A big part of that defensive success stems from the efficiency of the offense.

The Nuggets continue to play a methodical pace with the basketball and shoot at a higher percentage. After losing Game 2, Denver has made better than half of its field goal attempts and has forced Miami to start many possessions from the inbounds pass.

That allows a much bigger Nuggets' lineup to get down the floor and get set, focusing on taking away those supporting scoring threats and playing Miami stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo one-on-one. While those stars continue to contribute, Denver is happy to give up contested 2-point attempts rather than leave space for the Heat’s opportunistic 3-pointer shooters.

The Game 5 Over/Under opened at 208 points and has since jumped to 209.5 points at some sharper online markets. This would be the shortest Over/Under the Nuggets have drawn all postseason, going 5-5 O/U at home in the playoffs. Miami is 8-4 O/U as a visitor in the postseason.

Three of the first four games in this series have stayed Under the total, with Game 4 playing below a closing number of 211.5 points — the shortest total of the NBA Finals so far. The series pace is sitting at a very slow rating of 90.75, with Games 3 and 4 boasting metrics of 92.5 and 91.0. 

Heat vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Miami Heat are 11-4 ATS when getting 6.5 points or more as underdogs, including an 8-2 mark as dogs of 6.5 or higher in the 2023 playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Nuggets.

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