When thinking about the NBA Finals, do not think about the TV ratings. Those numbers do not matter. Instead, think about which Indiana Pacers excel at shooting from the corner. Think about how gladly Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will drive by 3-point closeouts. And think about who in this series has the most title experience.
Those are the focuses of my Pacers vs. Thunder props and NBA picks before Game 1 tips off at 8:30 ET on Thursday, June 5.
Best Pacers vs Thunder props
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Toppin 2+ threes (+220) -
Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 threes (-120) - Siakam Over 19.5 points (-115)
Pacers vs Thunder player props for June 5
Obi Toppin 2+ threes (+220 at bet365)
Let’s start by laughing at what Obi Toppin’s 3-pointer Over/Under market is set at. Toppin is juiced all the way to -200 to clear 0.5 threes. Immediately, this +220 looks pretty good. To profit on Toppin hitting one 3-pointer, you have to bet two dollars to win just one. To profit from him hitting a second 3-pointer, you could make more than two dollars for every dollar you bet. This is an absurd uptick.
Sure, Toppin has hit multiple 3-pointers in only two games this postseason, while shooting just 28.6% from deep, but he is taking 2.6 threes per game. Furthermore, that number should climb.
The Oklahoma City Thunder bases its defense on allowing looks from the corners. As much as corner 3s have come to define much of the modern NBA, the Thunder bet on themselves closing out strongly enough to fluster those open shooters. And this has obviously worked, producing the best defense in the NBA.
But at 6-foot-9, Toppin will not be easily flustered by those closeouts. There is a reason he hit 45% of his corner 3s this season — 54-of-120 — while taking them on a full 20% of his field goal attempts. Only Ben Sheppard shot in the corner more often among Indiana’s rotation, but his postseason action has dwindled, particularly compared to Tobbin’s.
The Thunder will let Toppin get clean catch-and-shoot chances in the corner. They will close out on him, but that matters only so much.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 threes (-120 at bet365)
This has been a line parroted by yours truly for most of the postseason, with some success. This logic is why Indiana was a savvy bet at +400 to upset the Cavaliers in the second round. The Pacers are known for their offense, but their defense deserves more appreciation.
Specifically, Indiana focuses on defending the arc, somewhat a philosophical opposite of Oklahoma City. The Pacers ranked No. 3 in opponent 3-point attempt rate after the All-Star Break, opponents taking just 39.0% of their shots from deep. And they made only 34.5% of those, the fourth-lowest percentage in the NBA.
Those trends have effectively continued in the postseason.
Indiana will stick to its plan to start this series. Perhaps it backfires and Rick Carlisle needs to adjust, but initially, the Pacers will not give up open looks from deep.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will not mind that, given he is an atrocious 3-point shooter, hitting just 30.0% this postseason. He will appreciate the closeouts, using them to get an edge on defenders who should already be scrambling to prevent his drives.
Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Pascal Siakam and Alex Caruso have the most NBA Finals experience in this series, the former winning a title in 2019 with the Raptors and the latter doing so in the 2020 bubble with the Lakers.
Much as is the case now, Siakam was Toronto’s No. 2 player while Caruso was a rotation player for Los Angeles. In other words, Siakam should have the most applicable experience in putting up numbers on basketball’s biggest stage.
Siakam has shown that experience this postseason, scoring at least 20 points in eight of 16 games, including three of six in the Eastern Conference Finals to win ECF MVP.
For all of Oklahoma City’s excellent defenders, Siakam may still present a matchup problem. He is not as loose with his dribble as most players standing 6-foot-8, and if he can get into the midrange on drives, he will be comfortable hitting runners or pull-ups.
The Indiana Pacers' path to winning the NBA Finals will hinge on having two offensive initiators, Siakam joining Tyrese Haliburton. Logic says that has been emphasized this week in prep, and getting Siakam going early will be a Pacers focus.
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