Giannis Antetokounmpo Odds and NBA Props: Greek Freak Does It Himself

This edition of the Milwaukee Bucks is currently more of a chemistry experiment than a functioning basketball team.

At the center of it all — and my NBA player props spotlight — is the Giannis Antetokounmpo odds, as he's trying to shake off his worst effort of the season, as the Bucks host the New York Knicks.

And while the NBA odds have Milwaukee as the favorites to pick up a win Friday night, we’re not so sure Giannis is ready to dominate in my free NBA prop picks for Knicks vs. Bucks.

For in-depth analysis of this Friday affair, check out Chris Faria's Knicks vs. Bucks picks.

Giannis Antetokounmpo NBA prop picks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 4.5 Assists
• Antetokounmpo u4.5 Assists/Antetokounmpo o0.5 3s/Antetokounmpo o10.5 Rebounds

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Giannis Antetokounmpo NBA prop pick

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 4.5 Assists (-105)

When news broke that Damian Lillard had officially landed in Milwaukee, the initial reaction was swift, and on the surface, deserved.

The Bucks shot to NBA Championship odds favorites at +390, ahead of the defending-champion Denver Nuggets.

While they still might be in the mix when it’s all said and done, right now, this team has not actually meshed through four games.

Lillard is an all-NBA system unto himself, and what he brings to the table is almost completely different from what Jrue Holiday delivered at the point guard position. And that’s an adjustment.

Whereas Holiday would happily surrender lead ball-handling and shot-creating duties to Antetokounmpo, leaving Dame as a primarily catch-and-shoot guy wouldn’t be an effective use of his skills, either.

The assist numbers, albeit in a small sample, reflect that. Giannis have averaged just under six assists per game for the last five years.

Through four games, he’s dealing just 2.5 assists per contest (Lillard is also just dealing 4.8 dimes per game, far below the nearly 7.5 he’s averaged over the last three years).

Antetokounmpo hasn’t crossed four assists in a game this season. Last season, the number of times he went sub 5-assists in four straight games was zero.

Normally, a look back at previous games would provide a good indication of how Giannis should perform.

In fact, in his last 10 games against the Knicks, Antetokounmpo crossed his 4.5 assist total in eight of those matchups. Lillard’s presence throws a wrench in those figures.

This could blow up in my face, as Giannis is so damn good, he can rip off a 37-point triple-double on any night. But after watching the Bucks slog through a 130-111 thumping at the hands of a so-so Raptors side — with Antetokounmpo delivering season-lows of 16 points and four rebounds, and matching a season-low two assists — I’m taking the Under.

While I think Giannis and Dame can turn this around and bring their numbers back to their usual lofty heights, for now, this chemistry experiment will need more case studies (read: minutes and reps) to find the winning elixir.

Prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 4.5 Assists (-105 at DraftKings)

Giannis Antetokounmpo NBA same-game parlay

Antetokounmpo Under 4.5 assists

Antetokounmpo Over 0.5 threess

Antetokounmpo Over 10.5 rebounds

+575 at DraftKings

I just spent the last section talking about why last season’s stats don’t matter, and now I build my Giannis single-game parlay on the back of… last season’s stats.

Unlike assists, though, rebounding is more effort and desire than scheme. Giannis should bring both of those in spades on Friday, playing at home, following a loss, and hosting their first game in the NBA In-Season Tournament odds.

Even after Antetokounmpo grabbed just seven rebounds across his last two games — including two nights ago when the Bucks were cleaned out on the glass to the tune of 50-29 — oddsmakers couldn’t bring themselves to lower his rebounding total to single digits.

It makes sense though, because the Greek Freak is among the dominant rebounders in basketball.

Last season, he went sub-10 rebounds in back-to-back games just once, and broke out of that slump with a 12-board effort the next game.

There were eight other times he had single-digit rebounds, and each of those times he returned with 10 or more rebounds.

In his last 10 against New York, Giannis is averaging 11.4 boards per game. He’s hit double-digit rebounds in eight contests, including the last six straight.

Let’s put a bow on this one with a reachable prop, no matter what you think about Antetokounmpo’s ability to hit from distance, and that glaring 28.6% career mark.

This season, he has hit just one 3-pointer in seven attempts and didn’t even launch from deep once in the loss to the Raptors.

Everyone knows Knicks head coach Tom Thiboudeau is one of the better defensive coaches in the East, and everyone considers it a win when they can get Giannis to settle for a 3-point shot, rather than rumbling downhill into the paint to wreck defenses.

I anticipate New York’s gameplan to pack the paint and force Giannis to at least attempt a few from beyond the arc to keep the defense honest.

Antetokounmpo has shot just 31.3% from distance in his last 10 against the Knicks, but he has also hit at least one moneyball in nine of those 10 contests.

It might not be pretty, but I feel confident rolling the dice on this prop as part of Friday’s SGP.

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