The Houston Rockets are eyeing a surge up the Western Conference standings, and tonight’s clash with the reeling Dallas Mavericks should offer a helping hand.
Houston has won four in a row to move within a game of the No.2 seed, and my Mavericks vs. Rockets predictions expect the hosts to be too physical for a Dallas team that’s lost six of its last seven contests.
Take a closer look at this March 14 battle with my NBA picks and betting angles.
Mavericks vs Rockets prediction
My best bet: Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 rebounds (+105 at bet365)
It’s been an all-time grim stretch for the Dallas Mavericks, and they arrive at Toyota Center with a decimated frontcourt. That spells trouble against a Houston Rockets team that loves to mix it up in the paint.
With Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford all sidelined, the Mavs started without a recognized center in Wednesday’s loss to the San Antonio Spurs. Jason Kidd is leaning on wing-heavy lineups to paper over the cracks, but that’s not going to cut it on the boards here against Alperen Sengun.
I’m jumping on the Over on 10.5 rebounds for Sengun here at this price. Though his numbers on the glass have dipped a little this month after averaging 11.4 rpg in February, he provided a reminder of his elite rebounding with 14 boards against the Orlando Magic earlier this week.
Even if Dallas elevates Dwight Powell from the bench to combat Sengun’s size, I see the Rockets making their advantage count with second-chance opportunities — Sengun sits inside the Top 10 in the league with 3.3 offensive rebounds per game.
Sengun grabbed 12 rebounds in the teams’ first meeting of the season back in October and, if this game is played at Houston’s preferred up-tempo pace, there should be a similar level of work available for him on the glass.
Though the Luka Doncic void hangs most heavily over the Mavericks franchise, it’s the injury bug for the team’s centers that feels like the most damaging blow for tonight’s clash.
Mavericks vs Rockets same-game parlay
Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 rebounds
Over 219.5
Klay Thompson Over 2.5 threes
Despite so much firepower sitting on the bench in street clothes, Dallas has hit the Over in four of its last five contests, and I’m riding that trend for my SGP. The Mavs have also cashed the Over in 21 of their past 32 road games.
With P.J. Washington possibly returning for Dallas, and Houston missing Amen Thompson’s relentless defense, a total of 219.5 feels within reach. Keep in mind that the Mavs have served up totals of more than 240 points in four of their past five outings.
Even after one of the toughest months in NBA history, the visitors haven’t thrown in the towel, and Klay Thompson has a neon green light to fire 3-pointers without Kyrie Irving and Davis to lead the offense.
Thompson has knocked down three or more triples in 11 of his last 13 games, and the shot volume will be there again tonight. He’s taken eight or more 3-pointers in five of his past seven outings.
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Mavericks vs Rockets odds
Mavericks vs Rockets live odds
Mavericks vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +11.5 | Houston -11.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +451 | Houston -599
- Over/Under: Over 223 | Under 223
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mavericks vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Though the Mavs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests, their past three losses have all come by 11 points or less, so I’m wary about laying a 12-point spread with the Rockets.
- Houston is 23-10 at Toyota Center this year, while Dallas is 14-19 on the road.
- The hosts have only cashed the 1H moneyline in 20 of their last 38 home games.
- Though the Under is 7-3 in the Rockets’ past 10 outings, they average the second-most field goal attempts per game – and the sixth-most free throw attempts.
Mavericks vs Rockets trend
The Mavs have hit the 1H Over in 29 of their last 42 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Rockets.
How to watch Mavericks vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, Texas |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA, SCHN |
Mavericks vs Rockets latest injuries
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