Offense helps defense. We, as a basketball-loving community, do not appreciate that enough. The Minnesota Timberwolves improved their offense with a lineup shift last week, and that has directly benefitted their defense as well.
The Timberwolves view the Memphis Grizzlies as an underrated rivalry, so that defensive improvement via offensive upgrade may have arrived at just the right time.
My Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves predictions will fade the road underdogs before tip at 8:00 p.m. ET. Find out more in my NBA picks for Saturday, January 11.
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Grizzlies team total Under 115.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
There is both a sample size concern and a quality of opponent disclaimer needed when discussing the Minnesota Timberwolves' new look.
The Timberwolves have held their last two opponents well below their team totals. Three games ago, the Clippers pushed their team total — depending on when you bet it — in large part because Minnesota was rather unsure of how to play with a five-point lead in the closing seconds.
Again, acknowledging the sample size and opponent quality — no respect intended for the Pelicans and depleted Magic — the Wolves’ defensive rating has been 102.5 in these three games, compared to 112.1 in the previous month.
Do not ascribe all of that to this lineup change, but a good amount of it should be. It has helped Minnesota’s offense.
Moving Donte DiVincenzo into the starting lineup has allowed him to hoist more 3-pointers while Mike Conley focuses on initiating for the second unit. Both aspects help the Timberwolves’ offense, even if that is not leaping off the page just yet. In fact, Minnesota’s offense has been statistically worse in this stretch.
DiVincenzo has attempted 23 threes in this stretch, making nine of them. Hoisting at least seven 3-pointers in each of these games as a starter stands out since DiVincenzo had shot that often just five times in his previous 19 games.
Every DiVincenzo attempt from deep is a quality possession. He is too good a shooter to consider them otherwise. And every DiVincenzo 3-pointer means a quality defender is already in position for any run out off a rebound.
This offensive twist has improved Minnesota’s defense in a way that creates value tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Grizzlies moneyline
Donte DiVincenzo Over 12.5 points
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 threes
DiVincenzo starting has allowed Anthony Edwards to initiate more of the offense, and when Edwards does so, he finds DiVincenzo open for threes. When he shoots often, he shoots well, and that opens up the floor more for Edwards and Julius Randle to operate.
Sportsbooks have not properly adjusted to this lineup shift just yet.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves odds
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves live odds
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +2 | Minnesota -2
- Moneyline: Memphis +110 | Minnesota -130
- Over/Under: Over 229.5 | Under 229.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 2-point favorite when this spread hit the board on Friday evening, a number that slipped across zero to favoring Memphis for a brief part of Saturday morning.
- That lasted just minutes, though, with the spread then moving back to the Timberwolves and settling at -2 early in the afternoon.
- Minnesota being favored may surprise some, but it speaks to oddsmakers’ continued faith in the Timberwolves’ underlying design.
- This total opened at 229.5, climbing to 230.5 overnight and then to 231.5 in the morning, peaking at 232 midafternoon.
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves trend
Minnesota has won six of the last seven meetings between these two teams. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Timberwolves
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-11-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN SE, FDSN NO, NBAC |
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
