After a surprise NBA Finals appearance in 2020, the Miami Heat bounced out of the 2021 postseason in a first-round sweep at the hands of the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks. The 2022 edition of the Heat (53-29, 1st in the East) will look for results closer to that 2020 team this time around.
And although they are the top seed in the East, there is almost little to no buzz surrounding their potential to emerge as the winner of the conference. They will begin this year's journey against the Atlanta Hawks (43-39), who needed the final play-in game to punch their ticket to the playoffs just a year after making it to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Continue reading our free NBA picks and predictions for the Hawks vs Heat matchup on Sunday, April 17th.
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Hawks vs Heat odds
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The total opened at 216 and has since moved to 218.
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Hawks vs Heat predictions
Predictions made on 4/16/2022 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Hawks vs Heat game info
• Location: American Airlines Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Sunday, April 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Hawks vs Heat series odds
Hawks: -425
Heat: +325
Hawks vs Heat betting preview
Key injuries
Hawks: John Collins F (Questionable), Clint Capela C (Out), Lou Williams G (Out).
Heat: PJ Tucker F (Out), Markieff Morris F (Questionable), Gabe Vincent G (Questionable), Dewayne Dedmon C (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Hawks have gone 6-1 to the Under in their last seven games. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Heat.
Hawks vs Heat picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
When it comes to the Eastern Conference, all of the buzz seems to be surrounding the reigning champion Bucks, the surging Celtics, the Embiid / Harden-led Sixers, or even the not-so-sneaky seventh-seeded Nets.
That's all despite the fact that Miami's last two playoff exits have come at the hands of the last two champions and that the Heat are the top-seeded team in the East, which they accomplished by having the best home record.
And it's not as if they are coming into the playoffs ice cold. Miami won six of their last seven regular season games against playoff or play-in teams which particularly includes road wins against Boston and Toronto.
Their lone loss was the regular season finale, in which they sat all of their starters and key reserves. There is arguably no hotter team going into the playoffs than the Heat, possessing a 14.6 NET rating during that six-game win streak which was sizably ahead of the next best team (Clippers at 11.3).
The Atlanta Hawks also finished the regular season on a hot streak, winning seven of their last nine games. One of those two losses came on the road to the Heat, which brought the season series to 3-1 in favor of the Heat, and Atlanta's lone win came in a game in which Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry were absent.
Speaking of absences, Atlanta will now go at least a week without Clint Capela after he sustained a knee injury in Friday's game. Without his interior presence, the lane may open up for the likes of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro who are good players in their own right but can be occasionally limited in terms of offensive versatility.
Capela's absence also has implications on the glass, with Capela having posted 14+ rebounds in three of the four games this year. Luckily, the Hawks may be getting reinforcements on that end, with John Collins being upgraded to questionable for Game 1 after having last played on March 11th.
Atlanta Hawks forward John Collins – out since March 11 due to foot and finger injuries – will attempt to play in Game 1 of series vs. Miami on Sunday, sources tell me and @ChrisKirschner. He has been upgraded to questionable.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 16, 2022
The Heat were tied for the lowest three-point percentage allowed (33.9%) whereas the Hawks ranked 24th, a problem that has seemingly plagued Atlanta for years now.
Prediction: Heat -6.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
Miami played to the second-best record towards Overs this season, going 48-33-1 (59.3%). They finished the regular season strong in that regard, going 8-3-1 to the Over in their last 12.
Atlanta was slightly above average in terms of hitting the Over, going 43-41 (51.2%). But unlike the Heat, the Hawks have played very strongly toward the Under as of late, having gone 6-1 that way in their last seven games now.
Looking back to last year's playoffs, the Hawks saw a pronounced dip in scoring compared to their regular season numbers, having surpassed their seasonal average just three times in their 18 postseason games.
In the Heat's much smaller sample of four games, they averaged just 96 points in regulation. Add in that the Heat rank 28th in pace and the Hawks are nothing special either at 17th, and you have a recipe for an Under.
Prediction: Under 218.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
In a lot of ways, the Heat separates themselves from the Hawks rather noticeably. Nate McMillan is a great coach in his own right but Erik Spoelstra is one of the league's best and has much more extensive playoff experience and success.
And that extends to the players as well.
Atlanta admirably broke through in last year's playoffs with their Eastern Conference Finals appearance, but this Miami team was in the Finals just two years ago. On top of that, they have added an NBA champion in Kyle Lowry this year, who undoubtedly adds a lot in terms of leadership both on and off the court.
While both teams are the league's best at shooting the three, it's Miami that rounds out that side of the game by also being a premier perimeter defense. It's the accumulation of those types of edges that make the difference in the playoffs.
Pick: Heat -6.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
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