The Miami Heat have been on a roll for nearly two months, having gone 17-9 since starting 12-15. They are winners of four of their last six, but most recently suffered a two-point loss to the Knicks on Thursday, despite a combined 57 points from Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro.
The Heat will travel on Saturday night to face the Milwaukee Bucks, who have had the pleasure of eliminating the Heat in the last two postseasons. The Bucks are undefeated since Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton made their joint return from injury on January 23, and Giannis has two 50+ point performances in his last three games and is averaging a monstrous 40.2 points since rejoining the team on the floor.
Will Giannis continue to pour on the points en route to a win over the Heat, or will Miami's "Big Three" put a stop to the former Finals MVP's absurd run and end Milwaukee's winning streak?
Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Bucks on February 4th.
Heat vs Bucks best odds
Heat vs Bucks picks and predictions
Earlier in the season, there was serious vocal concern over the Miami Heat's viability as a serious playoff contender. A rough 12-15 to the start of the season and a seemingly less cohesive roster had many writing off a team that had just pushed the Celtics to the brink of Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals last summer.
But since mid-December, the Heat have managed to turn things around for the better. They are 17-9 since December 12, and it has largely come due to improvement on the defensive front.
Prior to that, they have ranked second in defensive rating while maintaining a similar offensive output (24th) and that change alone has bumped them from 24th in net rating to 11th during that 26-game stretch. Rebounding has also been much better, improving from 26th to 12th.
Despite that sustained and improved play, the challenge ahead of them on Saturday night is an entirely different beast. Miami will now be tasked with facing a red-hot Milwaukee Bucks team that are winners of six straight on the back of the returns of Giannis Antetokoumpo and Khris Middleton.
Middleton has played a more complimentary role since coming back, averaging just 17.2 minutes while he builds up his game-level conditioning. He has still managed to average 13.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in that reduced role, but was noticeably out of the closing lineup in the Bucks' 106-105 comeback win on Thursday night.
Conversely, Giannis has been an entirely different beast since his return. The former back-to-back MVP has averaged 40.2 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game while averaging just 32.2 minutes played. He has shot 59.5% from the field during that time, including a 38.5% clip from deep on 4.3 attempts per contest.
The Bucks are averaging 127.2 points a night and have ranked sixth in effective field goal percentage. That has been good enough for a ninth-ranked offensive rating since the co-stars' returns. They've been even better on the other end of the floor, boasting the second-best defensive rating in the Association.
It's hard to argue that there is a more complete team in the NBA at the moment. This all goes without mentioning the newly-named All-Star and defensive mastermind Jrue Holiday, as well as Defensive Player of the Year candidate Brook Lopez.
On top of that, the Heat got the best of Milwaukee in the first two games of the season series while Giannis was sidelined. It stands to reason that the Bucks' superstar may play with an extra edge to reestablish Milwaukee's dominance in the rivalry.
My best bet: Bucks -5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Heat vs Bucks spread analysis
Miami has been the league's second-worst team against the spread this year, and the Heat have struggled particularly against the Eastern Conference — sporting a record of 10-16-2 in those games. They also have struggled in general as of late, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are 27-22-3 ATS this season, good for the sixth-best cover rate in the league at 55.1%. At home — games that they've always been favored in — Milwaukee has gone 17-10 ATS (63.0%).
Milwaukee has covered in five of its previous seven games and is also 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a single-digit favorite.
Heat vs Bucks Over/Under analysis
The total for Saturday's game opened at 219.5 and has since moved down a point as of Friday afternoon.
The Heat have played 30-23 to the Under (56.6%), the second-highest rate of Unders in the league. Miami has also gone Under in six of their last seven games and is 20-12 to the Under in games with a total at or above Saturday night's number.
Milwaukee is an even 26-26 on totals this season. However, the Bucks are 17-10 to the Over at Fiserv Forum — the fourth-highest rate of Overs for a team playing at home this season (63.0%).
Saturday's projected scoring environment is low for their standards, having played in just 11 games with a total at or below 218.5. The Bucks have gone 6-5 to the Over in those games.
Heat vs Bucks betting trend to know
Miami is the league's second-worst team at covering the spread, covering in just 40.0% of its games so far this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Bucks.
Heat vs Bucks game info
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, February 4, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BUSSUN, BSWI |
