The Miami Heat blew a late lead against the Los Angeles Lakers last night. They ultimately lost in overtime and will now stick around for a meeting with the Los Angeles Clippers. Something to monitor in this game is the fact that Jimmy Butler had to leave last night’s game with an ankle injury.
Regardless of who ends up sitting this one out, tonight’s NBA betting odds have the Heat tabbed as small underdogs. Will Los Angeles, which has won five in a row, cover the number? Find out in our Heat vs. Clippers picks and predictions for Thursday, November 11.
Heat vs Clippers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
After Miami played late into last night, Los Angeles opened this game as a 3.5-point favorite. The Clippers are still mostly favored by the same amount, but it is possible you’ll see the Heat as a 3-point underdog. The total is mostly sitting at 212.5 after opening at 213.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Heat vs Clippers predictions
Predictions made on 11/11/2021 at 11:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Heat vs Clippers game info
• Location: STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Thursday, November 11, 2021
• Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV, BSW, BSSUN
Heat vs Clippers betting preview
Injuries
Heat: Jimmy Butler F (Questionable), Markieff Morris F (Questionable), Tyler Herro G (Questionable), Max Strus G (Questionable), P.J. Tucker F (Questionable), Victor Oladipo G (Out).
Clippers: Marcus Morris F (Out),, Kawhi Leonard F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Clippers are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games against teams with winning percentages above 60.0 percent. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Clippers.
Heat vs Clippers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The injury to Jimmy Butler was a tough blow for the Heat on Wednesday. The All-Star is now questionable for this game, but it’s unlikely he’d play to his fullest capabilities even if he is out there for this one. That’s bad news for Miami in a matchup like this, as Butler was likely going to be defending Paul George. This season, George is averaging 26.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 2.5 steals per game. He’s playing at an extremely high level and will be the best player on the floor in this game.
The Clippers also happen to be third in defensive rating this season, and that is not insignificant in any game. However, it’s especially important when factoring in that Miami has guys playing big minutes like Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson. Both players have been excellenton the offensive end, but Los Angeles is as disciplined as they come. Head coach Tyronn Lue is going to stress the importance of not leaving either one of those two open, and he’ll also look to attack them on the other end of the floor.
It’s also worth noting that Ivica Zubac has played some great basketball for the Clippers this season. Zubac isn’t the most athletic guy in the world, but he has a great combination of size and toughness. That will be important in his matchup with Bam Adebayo. Adebayo is relentless on the glass, but Zubac has a big body, and his presence is one of the reasons Los Angeles should be able to cruise here.
Prediction: Clippers -4.0 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Over has uncharacteristically hit in three straight games for the Heat and the same can be said for three of the Clippers’ last four games. These are two teams with defense-first mentalities, so it’s interesting to see them playing in such high-scoring games recently. Regardless, look for that to change when these two clash at the Staples Center tonight.
Even if Butler ends up missing this game, this one should ultimately go Under the total. Miami has played at the fourth-slowest pace in the entire NBA this season, and Los Angeles isn’t the type of team to try to speed the Heat up. Sure, the Clippers are currently seventh in the NBA in pace, but this team is more of a chameleon in terms of style. Los Angeles is capable of playing a variety of tempos, and this one should be a contest in which both teams lock in defensively and value each possession on the other end.
Over the last three seasons, the Under is 29-15 in Clippers games with a spread of +3 to -3. The Under is also 14-8 when the Heat are road underdogs of six or fewer points.
Prediction: Under 212.5 (-110)
Best bet
As mentioned earlier, George is playing some great basketball this season. The Clippers star continues to impact the game on both ends of the floor, and he is the main reason that Los Angeles is winning games without Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers are leaning fully into his diverse skill set, and that is allowing George to fill up the stat sheet and thrive within the flow of the offense.
On the year, George is third in usage rate at 33.7 percent. That means there are only two players in the league that are a bigger part of their team’s offenses than George, but the Clippers wing is not a selfish player. He likes to get his teammates involved, which is part of the reason he’s averaging 5.4 assists per game. George is, however, doing a better job of making plays for others lately.
George has dished out at least six assists in each of the last five games for Los Angeles, and that streak shouldn’t end here. With Butler out, the Heat are going to need to send help at George. That’ll allow him to pick up some easier assists by simply dumping the ball off and allowing his teammates to play a little 4-on-3 basketball.
Pick: Paul George Over 5.5 Assists (-113)
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