The Oklahoma City Thunder have locked up the top spot in the Western Conference, but with the playoffs approaching in just a couple of weeks, they should look for a strong finish to the season which would mean avoiding a brutal defeat to the slumping Phoenix Suns.
My Thunder vs. Suns predictions will explain why Phoenix may have a slightly easier time scoring in this one than they did on Tuesday night, and where this Oklahoma City defense may be vulnerable.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Wednesday, April 9.
Thunder vs Suns prediction
My best bet: Over 226.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
When we wrote to you about the Phoenix Suns yesterday, we highlighted that this is a terribly inefficient offense which has only been made worse by an injury to Kevin Durant. Well, a day later not much has changed.
Phoenix was pummeled by the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night by 38 points, shooting a miserable 39.8% from the floor against a strong interior defense and continuing to struggle in protecting their own rim.
There’s not really much that Phoenix is doing well right now, particularly without Durant, but it’s important to note than even when healthy the Suns fell victim to their own love of the mid-range jumper. It’s not exactly the most efficient way to play, but at least they’d shot well enough there to sit just above the league average in production. Now, they continue to force the issue there without their best shooter.
With all of that said, the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 23rd against mid-range shots and have allowed the 11th-most shots in that zone over the past 14 days. There’s a window of opportunity here for Phoenix to score, and what I like even more is the fact that Oklahoma City has allowed the fifth-highest 3-point shooting percentage in the last two weeks. Phoenix has been slightly more inclined to shoot from outside without Durant, and now the Suns will go from facing a great 3-point defense to a poor one in a 24-hour span.
In the past two weeks, the Suns sit 24th in offensive efficiency and 30th defensively, and grade out as the very worst team against shots at the rim and from 3-point range.
All of that should amount to a high-scoring game. The Thunder may be slumping just a bit on offense, but they should find it easy to score on this porous Suns defense and push the pace of this game up as they take control.
Thunder vs Suns same-game parlay
Over 226.5
Devin Booker 3+ made threes
Isaiah Hartenstein 3+ assists
Neither the Suns nor the Thunder have been shooting a lot from outside, but we’ve got to take someone here given the state of both defenses around the arc. I’ll opt for Devin Booker, who had taken eight three-pointers per game since Durant’s injury up until last night’s blowout-shortened stint.
Booker has cooled a bit from outside, but the volume should be there given the Thunder have allowed plenty of space to shooters and the Suns have had no choice but to let Booker shoot as much as he can.
The Suns’ woes defensively have also shown up in the assist column, where they’ve allowed the second-most per 100 possessions. I couldn’t be more excited to play Isaiah Hartenstein at this number, one he’s hit in three of his last four as he continues to establish himself as a crucial playmaker offensively. He should have plenty of the ball here against a weak frontcourt defense, but we want that given his first inclination on offense is to find the open man.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Thunder vs Suns odds
Thunder vs Suns live odds
Thunder vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -11.5 (-110) | Phoenix +11.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -250 | Phoenix +205
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder are a handsome 20-12-2 against the spread as road favorites.
- Phoenix is 14-24-1 ATS at home and 2-8 ATS in its last 10.
- The Over has cashed in seven of Phoenix’s last 10 games but it just 7-7 when Oklahoma City is on the second night of a back to back.
- Phoenix has gone just 17-22 to the Over at home.
Thunder vs Suns trend
The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+12.35 Units / 32% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Suns.
How to watch Thunder vs Suns
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Arizona's Family 3TV / Arizona's Family Sports, FanDuel Sports Network - Oklahoma |
Thunder vs Suns latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
