The penultimate game of this truly weird Toronto Raptors season is here. The Raps tried to tank, but it didn’t work, and now they hope the lottery gods do them some favors.
My Raptors vs. Mavericks predictions highlight a spread that is not giving Toronto enough respect in this spot, regardless of the team's motives
Check out my NBA picks for tonight’s game set to tip off at American Airlines Center in Dallas, at 8:30 pm ET on Friday, April 11.
Raptors vs Mavericks prediction
My Raptors pick: Raptors +12.5 (-110 at PointsBet Canada)
My analysis
The Toronto Raptors just weren’t good at tanking.
Yes, they had more talent than some other teams vying for a top spot in the upcoming NBA Draft, but the real problem was the vibes. This team seems to enjoy playing together and is buying into the system of head coach Darko Rajakovic, particularly at the defensive end of the floor.
The Raptors lead the NBA in defensive rating since the All-Star break, which is all the more impressive when you consider all the impact guys that have been in and out of the lineup in the second half of the season.
That defense and effort have made the Raptors an excellent bet. At 48-31-1, only the Oklahoma City Thunder have been better against the spread this season.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks have clinched a Play-In spot in the Western Conference and will likely be the 10-seed with a trip to Sacramento likely on tap. But they are coming off one of the biggest emotional letdown spots you can imagine following Luka Doncic’s return to Dallas on Wednesday night.
The Mavs lost that game 112-97. It was their third loss in a row, and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five. Dallas now ranks 24th in offensive rating since the All-Star break, and the injury report looks interesting for tonight’s game.
Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Dante Exum are all listed as day-to-day with various injuries.
Despite all that, the Raptors are still 12.5-point underdogs.
The way the Raptors are playing defense, no matter who is on the court, combined with the Mavericks’ lack of motivation and overall poor offense, means I think Toronto keeps another game within the number.
Raptors vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Raptors +12.5
Ochai Agbaji Over 12.5 points
P.J. Washington Under 14.5 points
The Raptors will be without RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl for this matchup. So, someone will have to step up to support Scottie Barnes in scoring, and I’m looking at Ochai Agbaji.
Agbaji is having a solid season with Toronto, averaging 10.1 points on shooting 39.1% from 3-point range, and he's been feeling it the last couple of games.
Agbaji has scored 15 points in his last two games while shooting 5 of 12 from beyond the arc. With him going against a Mavericks team that ranks 24th in defensive rating since the All-Star break, I like him to go Over 12.5 points tonight.
Let’s back this Raptors’ defense to shut down at least one Mavs player.
P.J. Washington is averaging 14.7 points per game this season, but he's in a slump, averaging just 12 points per game over his last four.
Anthony Davis being back definitely has something to do with that, and with Poeltl out tonight, AD will be the focal point of the Mavs' offense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Mavericks odds
Raptors vs Mavericks live odds
Raptors vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +11 | Dallas -11
- Moneyline: Toronto +450 | Dallas -600
- Over/Under: Over 225 | Under 225
Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada
Raptors vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Raptors opened this matchup as 11-point road underdogs and have since moved to 12.5.
- The Raptors haven't been as great as double-digit dogs, but this spread just feels too big for this spot.
- The total hit the boars at 225 and has come down just slightly to 224.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- I would lean toward the Under here. The Raptors have been all defense and no offense, ranking 26th in offensive rating since the All-Star break. I like the Mavericks team total Under 118.5 quite a bit as well.
Raptors vs Mavericks trend
Raptors have covered the spread in 48 of their last 79 games for +16.15 Units and a 19% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Raptors vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas |
| Date | Friday, 4-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | The Sports Network, KFAA, WFAA |
Raptors vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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