The Los Angeles Lakers are on the hunt for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, entering the day with the possibility of finishing anywhere from third to fifth. They’ll take on the team who’s locked up the No. 2 seed, the Houston Rockets, who will be without many of their best players.
We’ll go over why those absences could actually help Houston keep things up offensively in my Rockets vs. Lakers predictions, and explain why L.A. could be in for more than it may expect.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Friday, April 11.
Rockets vs Lakers prediction
My best bet: Rockets +12 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Getting right down to business here, the Houston Rockets will be without Alperen Sengun for a second straight game while Amen Thompson and Dillon Brooks rest and Fred VanVleet continues to nurse an injured ankle.
That is going to make scoring the ball very difficult, even for a team which ranks fifth offensively in the last two weeks, though the Los Angeles Lakers haven’t exactly done a bang-up job defensively in ranking 16th over that same span.
Houston enters the day as the top three-point shooting team over the course of the last two weeks, and when Sengun and Thompson have been off the floor this team has shot more from outside with a sizable drop in field goal attempts taken at the rim. While Brooks is a solid shooter, VanVleet has struggled and the likes of Tari Eason and Cam Whitmore have made its look at the perimeter a stronger one.
The Lakers grade out as the third-worst three-point defense in those same 14 days, and while they’ve allowed the majority of their opponents’ shots to come from the inefficient mid-range their inability to slow the Rockets’ roll from outside could play a major role in determining how this one goes.
With Houston still commanding the boards, and looking even stronger down low with Jock Landale stepping in for Sengun, it should hold at least two edges over L.A. here despite receiving a ton of points from oddsmakers. On the flip side, the Lakers have been just as solid as the Rockets offensively, but Houston’s defense has sat just outside the top five in the last two week and has been significantly better against the outside shot without VanVleet which is where L.A. has been red-hot.
This one should be closer than it appears with the injury report, and I trust the depth of the Rockets to come up with a gritty, hard-fought cover.
Rockets vs Lakers same-game parlay
Rockets +12
Jaxson Hayes Over 6.5 points
LeBron James Over 1.5 made threes
With a mess of an injury report, we’ve only got Lakers props to pick from. With that, we’ll pick out one of the spots where the Rockets are vulnerable without Sengun which is at the rim. Opponents are seeing a four-point uptick in shooting accuracy at the rim with Landale on the floor, and that leads me to believe that Jaxson Hayes – who has taken 83% of his shots down there – should be able to notch seven points for a third time in four games.
I’m also confident in LeBron James here, who has been turning up the shot frequency a bit from 3 in his last five games and will meet a team which has allowed the fifth-most attempts in the last two weeks. Yes, VanVleet is a liability against the 3, but he plays the point – and James will find a much easier time shooting the ball against Whitmore and Jeff Green with Brooks out.
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Rockets vs Lakers odds
Rockets vs Lakers live odds
Rockets vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: Houston +9.5 (-110) | Los Angeles -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston +500 | Los Angeles -700
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rockets are 10-7-1 against the spread this season as road underdogs.
- L.A. is 20-11 ATS as a home favorite but 5-4-1 in its last 10.
- The Under is 21-19 in Lakers home games but 6-4 in their last 10 contests.
- Houston has gone 5-2 to the Over in its last seven and 23-16 on the road this season.
Rockets vs Lakers trend
The Houston Rockets have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 24 games (+17.60 Units / 64% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Lakers.
How to watch Rockets vs Lakers
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California |
| Date | Friday, 4-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Rockets vs Lakers latest injuries
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