The New Orleans Pelicans entered this season with a 45.5 win total Over/Under line, but very little has gone right since then, and they’re just 21-59 as they face the Miami Heat tonight.
Miami has a play-in spot locked up but there’s still hope of at least hosting the 9 vs 10 battle, and my Heat vs Pelicans predictions expect Bam Adebayo to lead the charge at Smoothie King Center. Read on for my NBA picks for this April 11 clash.
Heat vs Pelicans prediction
My best bet: Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 points (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
In some ways, Bam Adebayo’s season can be viewed in two halves. He got off to a slow start and has had to adjust to both Jimmy Butler’s departure and Kel’el Ware’s arrival in the starting five, but there have been positive signs for the Miami Heat lately, with Adebayo finding his best form and averaging 20+ points since the start of March.
He’s up to 24 ppg so far in April, headlined by a 31-point effort in the weekend’s double-overtime loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, and I see him feasting on the New Orleans Pelicans’ backups here.
Bam has scored 21+ points in four of his past five games, with an impressive (but surely unsustainable) 53% mark from downtown this month. It’s taken some time for him to feel comfortable with a larger share of the shot volume, but he’s piled up 15+ field goal attempts in five straight contests – and 25+ in two of those.
This isn’t the first year that Miami has found a formula on the eve of the playoffs, and Erik Spoelstra has to like what he’s seen over the past few weeks. This recent stretch bodes well as they visit a New Orleans team missing Zion Williamson, C.J. McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Herb Jones, among others, and the Heat should score freely here.
Adebayo poured in 23 points against the Pelicans in early January, and I’m backing him for another efficient night.
Heat vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 points
Heat -14.5
Davion Mitchell Over 2.5 rebounds
Though laying a 14.5-point spread with a play-in team requires a deep breath, the Heat should roll past a depleted New Orleans roster. The Pelicans, who’ve lost five in a row, will be working with a rotation that can only loosely be described as NBA reserves, and they’re coming off an ugly 136-111 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night.
Meanwhile, the Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, going 7-3 SU in that span, and the visitors have also covered the spread in seven of their last 10 matchups against New Orleans.
I’m taking a Davion Mitchell prop to round out with SGP. His relentless defense has earned him a significant role off the bench for Miami, and his playmaking has stood out (7.2 APG this month), but it’s his rebounds tally that I’m targeting.
Mitchell has finished with 3+ rebounds in four of his last five outings, and I expect him to log 30+ minutes even if the scoreline gets out of hand in a hurry. There should be plenty of New Orleans misses for the Heat to fight over tonight.
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Heat vs Pelicans odds
Heat vs Pelicans live odds
Heat vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Miami -16 (-110) | New Orleans +16 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami -1200 | New Orleans +750
- Over/Under: Over 214 (-110) | Under 214 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
- While the Heat are 16-23 on the road this year, they had won three in a row away from Kaseya Center before a loss in Chicago in midweek.
- The Pelicans have picked up 14 of their 21 wins at home, but they’re just 33-44-3 ATS overall this year.
- The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, who rank 24th and 25th in the NBA in points per game.
- The Over has hit in four of Miami’s last five outings.
Heat vs Pelicans trend
The Heat have covered the 1H spread in 31 of their last 46 contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Pelicans.
How to watch Heat vs Pelicans
| Location | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana |
| Date | Friday, 4-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network-SU, GCSEN |
Heat vs Pelicans latest injuries
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