The Miami Heat might be one of the more overlooked teams heading into the All-Star break. They sit second in the Eastern Conference despite not having a healthy roster most of the season.
Miami will look to close the unofficial first half of the season with a victory when they visit the Charlotte Hornets.
The offense in Charlotte has been all the buzz so far this season but will it be enough to help them cover as home underdogs? Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Heat vs. Hornets on February 17.
Heat vs Hornets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Hornets opened this Eastern Conference matchup as 4-point home underdogs but it’s the Heat who have seen the early money, moving the line to as high as 5.5 at some shops. The total hit the board at 226.5 and has yet to see much action as of Thursday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Heat vs Hornets predictions
- Prediction: Heat -5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 226.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Lowry Over 2.5 made threes (+115)
Predictions made on 2/17/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Heat vs Hornets game info
• Location: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
• Date: Thursday, February 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSE-CHA, BSSUN
Heat vs Hornets betting preview
Key injuries
Heat: Jimmy Butler SF (Questionable), Tyler Herro SG (Out).
Hornets: Gordon Hayward SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games while the Hornets are 0-4 ATS in their last four as a home dog. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Hornets.
Heat vs Hornets picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Heat just may be the most underappreciated team going in the NBA. Even though they have barely had a healthy roster all season, the Heat are sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference and rank sixth in net rating.
Despite this, the Heat are still 12/1 to win the NBA title and while their five-game winning streak was just snapped, they are in a prime position to enter the All-Star game with a victory when they visit the Hornets tonight.
The Hornets enter this matchup losers of seven of their last eight and are 2-7-1 ATS over their last 10 games. Buzz City has been carried by its offense to this point but it hasn’t been good enough to make up for a porous defense.
The Hornets rank 23rd in defensive rating and 28th in points allowed per game. They also give up a ton of the threes, the second-most in the NBA per game in fact. Even with Tyler Herro on the shelf, that doesn’t bode well facing a Heat team that ranks third in 3-point shooting percentage.
And while the Hornets have the NBA’s highest-scoring offense, this Heat team is exactly the type that can slow them down. They rank sixth in defensive rating and fifth in opponent field goal percentage. In fact, they’ve done so recently, holding the Hornets to just 86 points in their meeting just two weeks ago.
We like the trend of the Hornets struggling against good teams to continue in this one. Lay the points with the Heat.
Prediction: Heat -5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
When it comes to the total, 226.5 just seems too high. Now, the status of Jimmy Butler is a big key here, but if he can go, the Under looks solid.
We mentioned that the Hornets put up just 86 points in that Feb. 5 meeting, but the Heat scored just 104 themselves, going Under by a whopping 37 points. With a similar total, we’re leaning towards more of the same.
The Hornets play at the highest pace in the NBA, but the Heat, who rank 27th in that category, almost forces you to slow down and play in the halfcourt offense. Charlotte’s offense just isn’t as potent with a slow game flow. In that previous meeting against Miami, the Heat held the Hornets to just 28% from 3-point range.
Meanwhile, the Heat have an efficient offense, but rank a middle-of-the-pack 16th in scoring, putting up 108.9 points per game. This number is just too high.
Prediction: Under 226.5 (-110)
Best bet
As noted, the Hornets struggle with their perimeter defense, allowing the second-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA while ranking 22nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. And with no Herro for the Heat, that should create an opportunity for point guard Kyle Lowry.
The Heat point guard is finding his footing after missing nine games for personal reasons. He is shooting a crazy good 54.5% from beyond the arc over his last five games and has nailed three or more threes three times over that stretch.
Getting plus money to hit three or more shots from deep tonight is a tremendous value.
Pick: Kyle Lowry Over 2.5 made threes
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