The NBA Playoffs push you over the hump with three Game 2 contests on the odds board tonight.
I get my fingernails dirty digging into the NBA player prop markets, measuring Game 1 results against adjustments and oddsmakers' expectations.
Here are my best NBA picks for April 23.
Best NBA player props today
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Sengun Over 4.5 assists (+135 at bet365) -
Herro Over 2.5 threes (+100 at bet365) -
Banchero Under 25.5 points (-115 at bet365)
NBA player props for April 23
Alperen Sengun Over 4.5 assists (+135 at bet365)
Alperen Sengun was a lone bright spot for the Rockets' offense in Game 1 against Golden State.
Houston scored just 85 points on 39% shooting as a team, with Sengun accounting for 26 of those tallies on 11-for-18 shooting.
With more scoring focus and the rest of his teammates firing at a collective 33%, Sengun recorded just one assist in Sunday’s loss. It wasn’t for a lack of trying, though. Sengun finished Game 1 with 11 potential assists, but the rest of the Rockets just couldn’t make good on those setups.
On the season, the 6-foot-11 center averaged just shy of five assists on 9.1 potential assists per outing. Before the postseason, he put forth assist efforts of four, four, four, five and five in his five scheduled matchups with the Warriors.
After his offensive eruption in the opener, expect Golden State to throw more defensive focus Sengun’s way, trying to take the ball out of his hands. It’s hard to imagine Houston shooting as poorly as it did in Game 1, so the other Rockets should be able to cash in those potential assists for actual dimes tonight.
His player projections for Game 2 all sit above the 4.5-assist total with models ranging from 4.8 to as high as 5.3 dimes. My number comes out north of five dimes from the Turkish All-Star, which should have the Over 4.5 assists priced at -120. That makes the tasty +135 return on this prop result very appealing.
Tyler Herro Over 2.5 threes (+100 at bet365)
Cleveland constantly hounded Tyler Herro in Game 1.
The Cavaliers picked up Miami’s sharpshooter with full-court pressure and threw double teams at Herro every time he attacked the interior. Cleveland made Herro work for every inch of hardwood, which wore the shooting guard down and left him as a vulnerable defender in the home stretch of Game 1.
He finished with just 21 points on 7-for-18 shooting, but did knock down three of his six attempts from beyond the arc.
To free up space for Herro and not have him blowing a tire in the fourth quarter, Erik Spoelstra will likely take the ball out of his hands and run Herro off screens to create space for catch-and-shoot sets. Herro had this to say to the media:
So that’s kind of wearing me down — expending energy on defense and then trying to break open on offense. So just finding different ways to be more efficient so I’m not expending so much energy on both ends. And then I can obviously be better on the ball, which I will be (in Game 2).
Herro is a collective 11-for-23 from beyond the arc in the playoffs and Play-In Tournament, making three triples in each of those three postseason appearances so far. In his two regular-season matchups with the Cavaliers, Herro was 4-for-10 and 5 of 9 from distance.
Player forecasts all sit above three 3-point makes from him tonight, and the sizable spread (Cleveland -12) writes a game script in which the Heat are trailing big and needing 3-point buckets to catch up quickly.
My projection for Herro is 3.25 triples. That should have the Over 2.5 threes listed around -150. But we can find EVEN money on that offering at bet365.
Paolo Banchero Under 25.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Paolo Banchero’s 36-point performance was wasted in Orlando’s Game 1 loss to Boston. The Magic’s standout small forward was 14 of 27 from the floor, tying his second-most shot attempts of the season.
The Celtics jumped out to a commanding lead and put distance on the scoreboard in the second half, which allowed head coach Joe Mazzulla to experiment with his rotations and see which combos matched up best with the Magic.
Playing from behind, Banchero had the green light against a Celtics team tinkering with its personnel and not entirely focused on shutting down Orlando’s star. Game 2 will play much tighter, and Mazzulla will look to implement his findings after lengthy tape sessions.
That 36-point outpouring has pumped Banchero’s scoring total from 24.5 O/U in Game 1 to as high as 27.5 O/U for Game 2 at some sportsbooks, with action on the Under dropping that bar to as low as 25.5 O/U.
Game forecasts aren’t as bullish on Banchero, with his point projections ranging from 20.5 to 25.2 points. Let’s not forget that Boston was the fourth-best defense in the regular season and choked out everyone but Banchero and Franz Wagner to just 27 combined points on a collective 10-for-30 shooting.
My projection for Banchero comes in just below 23 points in Game 2. The Under 25.5 points at bet365 is priced at -115, but given that forecast, it should be carrying vig closer to -190.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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