Heat vs Kings Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

The Kings fired Mike Brown and are starting to finally get results. The Heat are dealing with Jimmy Butler drama and are getting blown out. Shawn Wronka believes there's only one possible outcome for this game, and that's a win by the home side.

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at Covers.com
Shawn Wronka • Betting Analyst
Jan 6, 2025 • 15:28 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Domantas Sabonis Sacramento Kings NBA
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The Miami Heat are in the middle of some Jimmy Butler-led drama as the star has been suspended seven games for essentially indirectly demanding a trade. On Monday night they travel to take on the Sacramento Kings, who have come alive as of late and have won four straight.

My Heat vs. Kings prediction has us riding the hot hand with the home side tonight. 

These are my best NBA picks for Monday, January 6. 

Heat vs Kings prediction

My best bet
Kings -3.5 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis

When the Sacramento Kings surprisingly fired Mike Brown just before the new year, many thought this was a lost season for Sacramento. But since then they have rattled off four straight wins, and have beat the Mavericks, Sixers, Grizzlies, and Warriors during that time.

Their last two games have been especially of note, as they put up 138 and 129 points, their first back-to-back 120+ point performances in regulation in over a month.

The firing of Brown has seemingly bought the Kings more buy-in from the team, and on Monday night they get to host the Miami Heat who are amidst their own off-the-court issues as of late.

Jimmy Butler has been unshy about voicing his displeasure with the Heat and has been suspended by the team for a whopping seven games for his comments.

They lost by 13 to the sub-.500 Pacers in Butler's last appearance in which he was seemingly unengaged, shooting just six times. They then lost by 36 to the eight-win Jazz on Saturday in their only game since Butler's suspension.

Most games can be better distilled to the matchup nuances, but tonight's game is a unique meeting between two teams going 100 miles per hour in different directions off the court.

Heat vs Kings same-game parlay

Kings -3.5

Nikola Jovic Over 10.5 points

Domantas Sabonis Under 20.5 points

Third-year youngster Nikola Jovic slotted into the starting lineup last game for the suspended Jimmy Butler and tied for his season-high in field goal attempts on his way to a 15-point performance.

Jovic managed 15 points despite going 1-of-7 from three and should start again on Monday night and find ample opportunity again.

And while there is a lot of fluidity with the Heat given the circumstances, Bam Adebayo still remains the defensive anchor and Miami's frontcourt has allowed just 20.1 points to opposing centers - the fourth-lowest mark on the season.

Domantas Sabonis should have trouble reaching his total of 20.5 points tonight — a mark he has managed to meet just once in his last 11 games against Adebayo and the Heat.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout

Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!

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Heat vs Kings odds

Heat vs Kings live odds

Heat vs Kings opening odds

  • Spread: Miami +3 | Sacramento -3
  • Moneyline: Miami +131 | Sacramento -148
  • Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5

Odds courtesy of bet365

Heat vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Heat are 15-18 against the spread this year, putting them at the 11th-worst cover rate of the year
  • Sacramento has been much worse at 13-21-2 ATS, good for the second-worst cover rate only behind the Suns
  • The Kings have gone an even 17-17-2 on totals this year

Heat vs Kings trend

Sacramento has played in four games with a total at or below tonight's total of 221, and has gone 3-1 to the Under in those games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Kings.

How to watch Heat vs Kings

Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Date: Monday, 1-6-2024
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSCA, FanDuel Sports Network - Sun

Heat vs Kings latest injuries

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Shawn Wronka - Covers
Betting Analyst

Shawn Wronka is an analytics-based sports bettor who was drawn to analytics at an early age via the stats on the back of sports cards. He began sports betting in 2016, and took an immediate interest in UFC before finding his way towards other major sports.

After years of casual betting, he took an interest in the numbers-based approach and specialized in learning and applying those techniques to niche markets such as player props, the NFL and NBA drafts, and F1. Shawn finds writing a good way to balance the time he spends on numbers, giving him an outlet to paint quantitative edges into qualitative narratives.

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his work has been seen in dozens of publications including the National Post, Financial Post, Calgary Herald, Vancouver Sun, and The Province.

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