Heat vs Knicks Game 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Bank on Barrett With Back to the Wall

It’s getting late early in the Mecca. After a stunning five-game series win in Round 1, the New York Knicks are at risk of being on the opposite end on Wednesday, May 10 as the Miami Heat travel north to seal the deal in Madison Square Garden.

The Heat have dominated the Knicks in most aspects of the game and are brimming with confidence behind superlative efforts from players up and down the roster. The Knicks will have to dig deep to send this series back to South Beach.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 5 of Heat vs. Knicks expect RJ Barrett to continue his recent stretch of fine play with New York’s season on the line.

Heat vs Knicks Game 5 best odds

Heat vs Knicks Game 5 picks and predictions

They say that the playoffs can be revealing. If that’s so, then nobody on the New York Knicks has shown more than RJ Barrett. RJ has been one of the most inconsistent players on the New York roster, who teases the Knicks hopefuls with his promise, only to fall into a rut of poor play for weeks at a time afterward. 

But these playoffs have seen one of the best and most consistent two-way stretches of Barrett’s career against some of the best defenses in the NBA, who are increasingly gearing up to stop him. In a series where few things have gone right against the Miami Heat, he’s been a bedrock of consistency on both ends for New York.

Barrett has succeeded with all the offensive elements one would expect. He’s getting to the rim, flashing middle to beat Miami’s zone, and hitting his patented push shot in the paint. Barrett is also attacking in transition whenever he can before the Heat can set their defense. He’s even managed to surprise Jimmy Butler with his aggression at times, blowing by the Heat All-Star multiple times for buckets.

Barrett has also become the Knicks' premier mismatch hunter. While Julius Randle continues to beat his head against the anvil that is Bam Adebayo, Barrett has wisely gotten himself going by targeting mismatches, whether of size or speed, to consistently get good shots and advantages in the halfcourt. Miami has an outstanding team defense, but for a patient player, there are weak points in every alignment like Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, and Kevin Love. Barrett may as well call them out by name when he’s initiating the offense, dragging whoever is guarding them into pick after pick until he gets his guy.

All of these high-value shots have put Barrett in the best rhythm from the perimeter he’s been in all season. RJ is shooting 42.3% from deep on 6.5 attempts per game through four games against Miami, compared to season-long marks of just 31% on 5.3 attempts. 

In addition to finding a rhythm, Barrett has done one of the most important things young players can do en route to a successful career — he’s realized who he is (and who he is not). Self-knowledge is the first step to self-mastery, and Barrett has come to realize that at this point in his career. He should not take any 3-pointer that is not a spot up off of a pass. 

Per Cleaning the Glass, 100% of Barrett’s threes in these playoffs have been assisted, which has contributed to his much higher success rate. Given how often the Heat go to a zone defense, Barrett’s ability to splash threes has been critical to what limited success the Knicks have had. Barrett has averaged 22.5 points over his last six games, and would have hit the Over on this prop in five of those six contests. 

A second-round loss to the Heat, even though they’re playing this well, would be a bitter final note to an otherwise wildly successful Knicks season. But even if they lose, Barrett’s performance in the crucible of the playoffs should give them great comfort going forward. Bank on RJ to have his best basketball saved for last.

My best bet: Barrett Over 20.5 points (-110)

Heat vs Knicks Game 5 same-game parlay

Barrett Over 20.5 points

Brunson Over 23.5 points

Randle Under 23.5 points

+400 at DraftKings

Despite Barrett’s success, the overall Knicks offense has struggled mightily through four games against Miami. The only other Knick to consistently score has been Jalen Brunson.

Brunson hasn’t scored fewer than 20 points in a game since March, and has been Over this prop in three of the four games in this series. While the rest of the Knicks have fallen flat, Brunson and Barrett continue to produce night after night, which has led to a wild situation where Brunson and Barrett have amassed 45% of the Knicks' total points in the 2023 playoffs. 

That’s such a shocking statistic in part because neither of them was the Knicks' leading scorer in the regular season, an honor that belonged to potential 2023 All-NBA candidate Randle, who averaged a whopping 25.1 points per game.

Randle came into the playoffs nursing a nasty ankle injury, which he subsequently reinjured during the last game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Only Randle and the training staff know how much the ankle woes might still be bothering him, but it's bad process that is at least as much to blame for Randle’s scoring drop off. He’s reverted to the 2021-22 version of himself, over-dribbling, forcing tough fadeaway jumpers, and turning the ball over at a high rate.

Randle has only scored 24 points or higher once in the entirety of the playoffs, and with Brunson and RJ going strong, he’s likely to continue deferring in Game 5.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Heat vs Knicks Game 5 spread and Over/Under analysis

The Knicks have seen their advantage in the NBA odds grow from -3.5 to as high as -4.5 points at most books. Other than homecourt advantage and the desperation that comes from being on the brink of elimination, there is little reason to believe the Knicks will cover this line. 

New York has been thoroughly outplayed in each game of this series so far, with their lone victory coming in a similarly desperate situation in Game 2, which Butler missed due to injury. Given that the Heat almost won that game, and the Knicks are more demoralized now than they were then, do not be surprised if the Heat close out Game 5 in convincing fashion. Miami is now 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games, including all four in this series.

The total for Wednesday’s game has fallen between 209.5 and 208.5. For reference, the total points scored in the four games so far in reverse order have been: 210, 191, 216, and 209. The longer series go, the more they trend toward the Under. And given how beat up some of the players in this series are, it’s fair to expect a drop-off in offensive execution, as well as a pair of more locked-in defenses. 

Both Butler and Brunson have been hobbled at various points in the previous few games, and have been missing a lot of shots they typically make. The Knicks going back to their usual starting lineup and swapping in Quentin Grimes in place of Josh Hart did work to free up the Knicks' offense, but without the services of Immanuel Quickley, they still had to make do with cramped spacing for critical stretches of Game 4. The Under has now cashed in seven of the Knicks' last nine games in the playoffs.

Heat vs Knicks betting trend to know

The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Knicks.

Heat vs Knicks Game 5 game info

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