Running on a five-game win streak, the New York Knicks continue to climb in the East.
The Miami Heat, meanwhile, have lost five in a row, sliding out of an assured Top-6 playoff berth and into the play-in bracket in seventh.
These teams trending in opposite directions collide Saturday at MSG, with the host Knicks pegged as five-point favorites in the NBA odds.
Can a long-time rival bring out the best of a struggling Miami side? Read below for my Heat vs. Knicks free NBA picks, and my best bet for Saturday, January 27.
Heat vs Knicks odds
Heat vs Knicks predictions
It's never a good time to call out the demise of the Heat.
However, Thursday night's 143-110 obliteration at the hands of the Boston Celtics does have to make even the defending Eastern Conference champs wonder if they're able to compete with the East heavies.
Offensively, Miami has to scratch and claw for everything. It’s scoring just 110.5 points per game on the season, which ranks fourth-worst in the NBA.
During this skid, the Heat have scored 110 points or less in all five, averaging a paltry 105 points per game.
Needing some kind of spark, Miami dealt veteran Kyle Lowry and a draft pick to Charlotte in exchange for guard Terry Rozier, a live body enjoying the best statistical season of his career.
It hasn't been a great start for him though, as he's totaled 16 points across his two games with the Heat.
Miami will also likely welcome rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr back from a groin injury that kept him out of the last six games.
That can only help against a Knicks team that has to be feeling good about itself after crushing the defending champion Denver Nuggets 122-84 on Thursday.
The Knicks have been doing it with defense during this fun run, holding four of five teams to 103 points or less, and none over 109.
That's helped them climb to No. 2 in scoring defense in the league at 109.8, with only the Timberwolves owning a lower number. With that kind of output, a middle-of-the-pack offense that churns out 115.2 points per game is working just fine.
Their success has coincided with the acquisition of wing OG Anunoby, whose defense and solid third-wheel offensive role has helped organize what was once a mismatched roster. Joining the club to start 2024, the Knicks have lost just twice in the last 13, and they're just a few games back of Philly in the 3-seed.
Heat-Knicks games are one of the few rivalries that still embody those old-school rough-and-tumble Eastern Conference grind-outs. New York took the lone meeting this season in November, eking out a 100-98 win.
Including their six-game playoff series, the teams played 10 times in 2023, and the Over/Under was split evenly at 5-5.
However, only twice was a total set higher than Saturday's 217 points. Using that as the guide, these teams went Under that figure in eight of the last 10.
This one's going to be close, but I see it fitting another classic Heat vs Knicks matchup.
My best bet: Under 217 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Heat vs Knicks same-game parlay
Under 217 points
Jimmy Butler Over 18.5 points
OG Anunoby Over 1.5 3-point makes
If Miami ever needed a standout performance from Jimmy Butler, this would be it.
The Heat star’s offensive output has dipped during this streak, as he’s scored more than 17 points just once in the last five games and twice in his last eight.
New York should be a welcome opponent, as Jimmy Buckets has topped his 18.5 scoring total for Saturday eight times in his last 10 games vs the Knicks, a 24-point-per-game average.
One of the main guys tasked with stopping him will be Anunoby, but let’s not forget about his contributions offensively.
He’s coming off a Knicks-best 26 points and six steals against Denver, which include a 3-for-9 mark from distance. That snapped an 0-for-4 stretch across his previous two games.
Prior to that, OG had hit at least two triples in four straight games. His numbers are crisp at home: he’s shot 19-for-42 from 3-point range since joining the Knicks, a 45.2% average at MSG.
While with Toronto, he had himself a day from distance against these same Heat, hitting five of 10 from beyond the arc. He should connect from deep a couple of times.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Heat vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
The lowest this point spread can be found is at 4.5 points as of early Saturday morning, though most sites are consistent with New York as 5.5-point favorites.
New York is a Top-5 cover team in the NBA, going 25-18-2 against the spread this season, including a 12-7-1 record at MSG.
Miami is on the other end of this list, sixth-worst with a record of 19-25-1 ATS. They've squared up on the road though, at 11-11-1 ATS.
As for the total, 216 points is the lowest baseline number put out thus far, with some books jumping to as high as 217.5 points.
Both teams have Over records of 19-26-0 on the year.
Heat vs Knicks betting trend to know
The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Knicks.
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Heat vs Knicks game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, January 27, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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