The Brooklyn Nets get a massive boost on Thursday night as they welcome Kevin Durant back to the lineup against the Eastern Conference-leading Miami Heat.
The Nets struggled without KD but with the All-NBA forward returning to play, oddsmakers are expecting a close contest, with NBA betting lines installing the Nets as slim 3-point home underdogs.
Here are our best free Heat vs. Nets NBA picks and predictions for tonight, March 3, with tipoff at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Heat vs Nets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with the Heat installed as 3.5-point faves with the Over/Under at 220.5. Early money has come in Brooklyn with the line shortening to Miami -3 and beginning to hit -2.5 at some online books as of 10 a.m. ET. These teams previously face off on February 12 with the Heat winning 115-111 in Miami but failing to cover as 11-point home faves.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Heat vs Nets predictions
Predictions made on 3/3/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Heat vs Nets game info
• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Thursday, March 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, Bally Sports Sun
Heat vs Nets betting preview
Key injuries
Heat: Kyle Lowry PG (Questionable), Victor Oladipo SG (Out), Markieff Morris PF (Out).
Nets: Kevin Durant SF (Probable), Andre Drummond C (Probable), Kyrie Irving PG (Out), Ben Simmons SG (Out), Joe Harris SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on zero days rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Nets.
Heat vs Nets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Heat are fresh off a 120-119 loss to the Bucks last night where Miami squandered a 14-point fourth-quarter lead. The Heat are still 9-2 SU (7-3-1 ATS) in their last 11 games and have the best record in the East at 41-22.
The Nets are in desperate need of Durant, with the preseason championship favorites looking destined for the play-in with a 32-31 record (24-38-1 ATS). Durant was leading the league with 29.3 points per game and Brooklyn was in second place in the conference when he sprained his MCL on January 15. Since then, the Nets have gone just 5-16 SU (8-12-1 ATS) with an average scoring margin of minus-8 ppg.
They've been particularly poor at home, going 1-6 SU and ATS in seven contests at Barclay's Center since Durant's injury. That's a strong indication of Kyrie Irving's value, with the All-Star guard unable to take the floor in the state of New York due to a COVID-19 mandate.
The Nets have been much more competitive on the road, where they lost by a single point to the Raptors on Tuesday, beat the Bucks on Saturday, and have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five. Yes, Irving is a big reason for that but it's not so much that they've needed the mercurial point guard than it is that they've needed somebody (anybody) to carry the offense.
Durant is even more efficient on offense than Irving and his presence also helps Brooklyn on the defensive end of the floor. The Nets have the league's second-worst defensive rating (118.3) since Durant's injury but were a respectable 14th with a defensive rating of 108.8 before then. With the Heat on the tail-end of a back-to-back, after a tough loss in Milwaukee last night and going 0-4 ATS in their last four contests without rest, back the Nets on the spread.
Prediction: Nets +3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Over has gone 8-2 O/U in the Nets' last 10 games and while their brutal defense should be better with Durant that will be offset by what should be a big improvement on offense. Durant will also get help on offense from Seth Curry who is averaging 17.9 ppg on 49/47/82 shooting in seven games with Brooklyn since coming over as part of the James Harden trade.
Meanwhile, the Heat are 11-5 O/U in their last 16 away games and are coming off a 239-point shootout against the Bucks last night. The Nets hit 21 3-pointers on an absurd 47.7% shooting from deep in that contest and while they should experience some regression in that area, they still lead the league with a 3-point percentage of 37.6.
It's also worth mentioning that Miami's leading scorer, Jimmy Butler (21.4 ppg, 5.7 apg), had just six points and two assists on 2-14 shooting against the Bucks. So, while the Heat might not be quite as red-hot from beyond the arc, they should get a much better offensive performance from Butler. Take the Over.
Prediction: Over 220.5 (-110)
Best bet
This is a spot where we really like the Nets. The Heat have not played well without rest and could be caught looking ahead to Saturday's showdown with the surging 76ers. Durant will be a massive help to the Nets on both ends of the floor and just his presence (rust or not) will be a confidence boost for a team that desperately needs it. We're taking the Nets on the moneyline.
Pick: Nets ML (+130)
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