Entering the season, neither the Dallas Mavericks nor the Sacramento Kings hoped to be in the Play-In Tournament. Similarly, neither hoped to blow up their roster.
And yet, here we are, with drastically altered looks from both Dallas and Sacramento in tonight's win-or-go-home matchup.
My Mavericks vs. Kings predictions will focus on one of the biggest pieces of those new looks. Find out more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, April 16.
Who will win Mavericks vs Kings?
These are rather frustrating rosters at this point. The trade deadline brought so much turnover to both Dallas and Sacramento that gauging either is difficult, particularly when combined with Anthony Davis’s extended injury absence.
There is some want to back the Mavericks when Anthony Davis is healthy. They have gone 6-3 with him in the lineup, one of those losses coming against the Clippers while they played like the best team in the NBA, and another against the Lakers in Luka Doncic’s return to Dallas.
However, the Mavs have not beaten anyone of note with Davis in the lineup since his first game — when he sparked a win against the Rockets before suffering his adductor strain.
Sacramento's backcourt is simply so much deeper than Dallas’s, and the Mavs may have to ask Klay Thompson to handle some minutes as the primary ballhandler. The Kings have enough pieces to deserve their status as favorites.
Mavericks vs Kings prediction
My best bet: Anthony Davis Over 11.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Anthony Davis enjoys his matchups with Domantas Sabonis. Few players can match up to Davis, and Sabonis is not one of them, despite his physicality and intellect.
In Davis’s last nine games against the Sacramento Kings across the last three seasons, he has cleared this rebounding prop in six of them, including each of the three meetings this season.
Those games came within two weeks in December, but it warrants noting that Davis came out ahead on the glass in all three while still wearing a Lakers jersey. Davis grabbed 19, 15 and 15 rebounds in those challenges, compared to Sabonis’s 12, 19 and 12.
Davis has played only nine games with the Dallas Mavericks, but his overall rebounding rate has held rather consistently. He is grabbing fewer offensive boards and more defensive boards, but his per 36 minutes rate remains at 12.3 compared to 12.5 in 42 games with the Lakers.
When Dallas traded Luka Doncic for Davis, the Mavs insisted they did so with short-term titles in mind. Kyrie Irving’s injury renders that unlikely this season, but Dallas should still commit to a win to keep its postseason hopes alive. That will involve playing Davis for more than 30 minutes, even if he has reached as few as 33 minutes in only one game since his return from injury.
If Davis plays a full workload, he should clear this prop easily. He simply outrebounds Sabonis.
Mavericks vs Kings same-game parlay
Anthony Davis Over 11.5 rebounds
Domantas Sabonis Under 13.5 rebounds
Mavericks +4.5
If we're trusting Davis to clear his rebounding prop, there is immediately some logic to doubting Sabonis clearing his.
Adding in the Mavericks +4.5 leg is a risk, but this total has fallen to 215.5, a tightened game always arguing for the multi-score underdog against the spread.
Taking Dallas to stay close but lose is also a nod toward Davis’s talent, and the Kings’ net rating in the last month has been -3.4, certainly arguing against much faith.
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Mavericks vs Kings odds
Mavericks vs Kings live odds
Mavericks vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +5 | Sacramento -5
- Moneyline: Dallas +166 | Sacramento -194
- Over/Under: Over 216.5 | Under 216.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Mavericks vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- Dallas opened as a five-point underdog before this spread closed to +4.5.
- This total opened at 216.5 and settled at 215.5.
- The total falling makes sense, considering 11 of the 16 initial Play-In games in the last four years have fallen to their respective Unders.
Mavericks vs Kings trend
The Kings went just 16-25 against the spread at home this season, compared to 18-20-3 on the road. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Kings.
How to watch Mavericks vs Kings
| Location | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-16-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Mavericks vs Kings latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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