The Dallas Mavericks more than held serve while they waited for Luka Doncic to return from injury, only to then give back that advantage back to the Utah Jazz with Luka in the lineup for Game 4. Dallas still has home-court advantage in this series, but squandering that tonight would push it to the precipice of elimination.
Can it recover from that late loss on Saturday to regain the advantage against Utah?
Here are our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Jazz at the Mavericks on April 25, with tip set for 9:30 ET.
Jazz vs Mavericks odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mavericks hit the board as 3-point favorites Saturday evening, minutes after losing Game 3 in Utah. Some books ticked up to -3.5 before returning to -3.0 on Sunday, while others instead dipped to -2.5, most yet also returning to -3.0.
The total saw more consistent movement, opening at 211 and moving universally up to 213 by Monday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Jazz vs Mavericks predictions
Predictions made on 4/25/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Jazz vs Mavericks game info
• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Monday, April 25, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Jazz vs Mavericks series odds
Jazz: +115
Mavericks: -135
Jazz vs Mavericks betting preview
Key injuries
Jazz: Trent Forrest G (Questionable). Udoka Azubuike C (Out).
Mavericks: Frank Ntilikina G (Questionable), Tim Hardaway Jr. G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Jazz is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played on one day's rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Mavericks.
Jazz vs Mavericks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Mavericks have covered the spread in the last three games of this series, and in Game 1 without Doncic, they missed the cover by only the hook. When it comes to gambling expectations in this matchup, Dallas has risen to the occasion where Utah has not.
In retrospect, this may have always been the worst possible matchup for the Jazz, despite Doncic missing three matchups. In the two dozen or so games after the All-Star break, Utah had the third-lowest average possessions per game. It does not play with pace, partly due to its funneling defense and basing an offense on a pick-and-roll duo surrounded by shooters. The lowest average possessions per game, though? That was the Mavs.
The Mavericks were as far behind the Jazz in this metric as the Jazz was behind No. 21. Dallas slowed things down this season, and the dazzle that is Luka camouflaged it.
By playing its own game, Utah is leaning into the exact game Dallas prefers. With the best player in the series back on the court, now nearly every advantage trends toward the Mavericks.
Add in home-court advantage tonight, and it is difficult to think of any reason to side with the Jazz. As Dallas coalesced to end the season — directly coinciding with when Utah floundered — the Mavericks won both March matchups against Utah.
Donovan Mitchell played terribly in those two games, but even in the four meetings thus far this series, he has needed high volume to score his 121 points.
Mitchell has shot 36.8% in those six games, and that type of inefficiency from Utah’s best player is all that more glaring when realizing these games are being played at a snail’s pace. If you are taking 25 shots per game when your team manages only 78 attempts, your share needs to be efficient.
By now, Dallas may be content to let Mitchell chuck. And as he continues to do so, the Mavericks should ease into a 3-2 series lead.
Prediction: Mavericks -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
If Mitchell gets hot, this thought will be quickly invalidated. Focusing on his shooting struggles amid his workload, it is hard to suggest the Over here. Luka & Co. want to play slow, so even if Dallas’ cornerstone gets hot, he will intentionally limit his number of chances simply through his pace.
Every Mitchell miss thus has more impact. He is an All-Star. The handicapper typing here owns two pairs of his shoes and has a framed print on the wall behind him of Mitchell dunking in front of Utah’s tequila sunrise-tinted mountains. But this is not his series and there is no harm in acknowledging that.
Jason Kidd may not be a great head coach, but he has not needed to change much this series to contain Mitchell. This is just how Dallas likes to play.
If the home-court team — with the best player on the court — is not forced to play in any way that makes it uncomfortable, then trusting its usual methods makes sense. With that said, the Mavericks’ usual methods of being the slowest team in this league will keep this Under the total.
Prediction: Under 213 (-110 at Caesars)
Best bet
This is a hunch play. This is an instinct. This is a feeling of inevitability.
Luka is about to put his stamp on this series. Jalen Brunson has carried the load for Dallas for long enough and now it's time for the star to take over. Whenever Doncic takes over, dramatics tend to follow.
A spread of less than a bucket naturally leads to a tolerable moneyline for the favorite. At -143, that cushion comes at a 33-cent cost, but if waiting for Luka to step forward, that cost may be undervalued at the end of the night.
If Doncic hits a game-winning shot, it is most likely that Utah will still cover tonight. I would be intrigued most by the odds to a prop of “Doncic scores game’s final points,” but in the meantime, this moneyline leans into that anticipation while also offering general protection.
Pick: Mavericks moneyline (-143 at FanDuel)
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