Jazz vs Timberwolves Picks and Predictions: Gobert's Absence Looms Large

The Minnesota Timberwolves will look to rebound from a brutal back-to-back that saw them drop games in Golden State and Phoenix, as they return home on Sunday to face the freefalling Utah Jazz.

While the Wolves continue to sweat the status of lead guards D'Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley, Utah has issues of its own as Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell remain out. 

Utah's lost 10 of its last 12 games as it heads to Minnesota, so can the Wolves pick up a much-needed home win on Sunday night? Find out with our free NBA picks and predictions for Jazz vs. Timberwolves on January 30.

Jazz vs Timberwolves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Timberwolves opened as 1- or 1.5-point favorites, depending on the book, but the line has since moved to a pick'em after the Jazz were briefly listed at -1 and -1.5 themselves. The total opened as low as 224.5 but action on the Over has seen it rise as high as 228.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Jazz vs Timberwolves predictions

• Prediction: Timberwolves -1 (-112)
• Prediction: Over 228 (-110)
• Best bet: Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 3-pointers made (+130)

Predictions made on 1/29/2022 at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Jazz vs Timberwolves game info

• Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Sunday, January 30, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSN, SNRM

Jazz vs Timberwolves betting preview

Injuries

Jazz: Donovan Mitchell SG (Out), Rudy Gobert C (Out).
Timberwolves: D'Angelo Russell PG (Questionable), Patrick Beverley PG (Questionable), Josh Okogie PF (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight games in Minnesota between the Jazz and Wolves. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Timberwolves.

Jazz vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Having won eight of 11 games and boasting the NBA's best offense since January 3, this week has been sobering for the Timberwolves. Though they hung tough in back-to-back losses to the Warriors and Suns, old flaws reared their head as Minnesota was outgunned by the Western Conference's powerhouses.

Worse still, D'Angelo Russell, whose shooting and passing had been central to the Wolves' No. 1 ranked offense this month, suffered a shin contusion on Thursday to join Patrick Beverley on the sidelines. That left two members of the NBA's best five-man unit in terms of net rating on the sidelines — and left Minnesota without its only two rotation-worthy point guards. 

Reality was winding up for another slap in the Wolves' face on Sunday, with the Utah Jazz coming to Minneapolis, but they caught a break with Rudy Gobert remaining out for that matchup. The Jazz have been a brutal team for Minnesota to face this year, with three wins in three for Utah and an average margin of victory of 18.6. However, Gobert is at the heart of that hellish matchup and his absence changes everything.

That's because it was this same Jazz that set the formula for defending Karl-Anthony Towns, after the All-NBA center tore Gobert and Utah apart one too many times. Two seasons ago, the Jazz stopped having Gobert defend Towns out on the perimeter and putting the DPOY in a position to be blown by. Instead, they defended Towns with Bojan Bogdanovic or Royce O'Neale, allowing Gobert to stick in the paint in a roaming role, doubling Towns when he tried to post up his smaller defender.

Since that adjustment, on the second night of a back-to-back in November 2019, Towns has averaged 19.6 points in six games vs. the Jazz, after averaging 26.3 in six games vs. Utah prior. It's become such a bogey to this Wolves team that they call teams defending Towns with a four "the Utah defense." In Gobert's absence, Towns should be able to dominate his matchup against Hassan Whiteside and carry the offensive load for Minnesota as he has in its last two games.

While Gobert's injury gives the Wolves a fighter's chance on the offensive end, they are at risk of being absolutely slaughtered by a 3-point heavy Jazz team on the other.

Minnesota surged up the defensive rankings in the NBA, in part, due to some great shot luck. From the start of the season until the turn of the new year, teams were hitting 33.8% of their 3-pointers (the eighth-lowest mark) against a Wolves defense in the Top 10 in defensive rating. That's begun to come back around lately and it's killing Minnesota, who allows the sixth-most 3-point attempts per game. Over the last 10 days, the Wolves are 29th in defensive rating and just had the Warriors hit 21/36 (58%) and Suns 20/39 (51%) of threes against them in losses. 

The ball movement and 3-point emphasis of those teams proved deadly for the Wolves, and it's set to be more of the same against Utah. The Jazz take the second most 3-pointers per game in the NBA, converting them at the sixth-highest rate. 

The Jazz are a bad matchup for Minnesota's defense but their missing pieces alter this game's outlook completely. Mitchell has been scorching against the Wolves this year, averaging 34.3 points on 56% shooting in three games, while Gobert being out changes absolutely everything on the defensive end. Without the Stifle Tower roaming the paint, the Wolves will be able to outgun even a hot shooting night from Utah.

The Jazz are 2-10 SU and 2-9-1 ATS over their last 12, and their woes will drag on in Minneapolis. 

Prediction: Timberwolves -1 (-112)

Over/Under analysis

Minnesota's offense has been humming as of late, as it ranks first in the league in offensive rating since January 3, when its starters returned from health and safety protocols. Even over the last two games, in which Russell missed six of eight quarters, the Wolves hung 115 on the Warriors and 124 on the Suns, the two best defenses in the league by adjusted rating.

Those outputs, in tough matchups, tell us the Wolves are beginning to find a respectable floor for their offense. The 115-point night vs. the Warriors came with Russell playing under 20 minutes and Anthony Edwards having an ugly game until cleaning up the box score in the fourth quarter. They were then able to score 124 points in Phoenix, on the second night of a back-to-back, despite leaning on Edwards and bench scorer Jaylen Nowell to run point. 

After those two productive scoring nights, on the road and on a back-to-back, one has to believe the Wolves will have another strong night back at home against a Jazz team that has sunk to 13th in adjusted defensive rating and remains without their defensive anchor. 

They're going to need it, too, as Utah is going to be bombing from beyond the arc against this Minnesota defense. Even putting Mitchell aside, Utah's ball movement against the Wolves' scheme will create open looks for Mike Conley and O'Neale, both of whom are hitting over 40% of their 3-pointers, as well as Bogdanovic, Rudy Gay, Joe Ingles, and Jordan Clarkson, who are all more than capable of knocking down the open looks they will get in this matchup.

The Jazz and Wolves have played to totals of 240, 244, and 228 this year, with all three prior matchups coming when Minnesota was scraping by with a tedious offense. With the Wolves' offense humming now, count on an Over in Minnesota. 

Prediction: Over 228 (-110)

Best bet

One of the most exciting developments of this season for the Timberwolves has been Anthony Edwards' continued growth as a shooter. Not only has he improved his shooting splits from every spot on the floor compared to last year but his 3-point percentage had improved month over month this season up until a 2-for-11 night in Golden State on Thursday. 

Edwards is still hitting 39% of his threes in January, after going over 40% in December, while his season-long mark is 37% on 8.9 attempts per game. The only players hitting more threes per game this year are Steph Curry, Fred VanVleet, and Buddy Hield, while he just edges out Patty Mills and Duncan Robinson. Not bad company to be in for a 20-year-old who wasn't seen as a high-level shooter entering the NBA.

As mentioned, Edwards has been partiuclarly dialed in lately, averaging 3.6 makes from three in the 15 games since he returned from health and safety protocols at the end of December. In four of the last five games, he's made 4+ shots from distance and in a shootout with the Jazz, Ant will again be on the mark from deep.

Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 3-pointers made (+130)

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