The Golden State Warriors kick the tires on their playoff potential and possibly throw a wrench into the battle atop the Western Conference when they host the Utah Jazz on Monday.
The Warriors have jumped up to eighth in the West, thanks to a cupcake schedule in recent weeks, but now get a true test against the No. 1 team in the conference and are installed as slim NBA betting underdogs at home. The Jazz cling to the top spot, still without star Donovan Mitchell, and hit the road for the first time this month.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Jazz vs. Warriors on May 10.
Jazz vs Warriors odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires opened Utah as a 3-point road favorite and the Jazz are down to -2 as of 6:30 p.m. ET. Golden State is attracting 63 percent of spread tickets and 60 percent of spread money. "The Warriors are a trendy 'dog tonight," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total dipped to 225.5 from a 228.5 opener, with 61 percent of tickets on the Over and 64 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameJazz vs Warriors betting preview
Injuries
Jazz: Donovan Mitchell G (Out), Mike Conley G (Out).
Warriors: Damion Lee G (Out), Kelly Oubre F (Out), Eric Paschall F (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Jazz are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Warriors.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
A pair of games against Oklahoma City can make any team look good. That’s the debate bettors are having with the Warriors, who haven’t played the toughest slate of games recently, featuring OKC (twice), New Orleans (twice), Houston and Minnesota.
Golden State did play the role of visitor in four of those six games and returns home, where it’s 19-13 ATS on the year—including a 5-2 ATS mark in its last seven home stands. Utah, on the other hand, hasn’t hit the road since a loss in Phoenix on April 30 and owns a 5-11 ATS count in its last 16 away games.
The Jazz are still without their starting backcourt of Mitchell and veteran guard Mike Conley, which hurts on both ends of the court. Utah’s backcourt is averaging only 48.9 points per game since Mitchell went down on April 16, leaving the Jazz to rely on the forward corps to shoulder the scoring load.
Golden State is running thin up front but has countered that lack of size with a frenetic pace on offense, putting opponents off their heels and beating them downcourt in transition. Led by the incredible efforts of Stephen Curry, who’s coming off a 49-point performance versus the Thunder, the Dubs are averaging 118 points on 49.5 percent shooting from the field at home since April, including making almost 17 3-pointers a contest on a near 40-percent success rate from deep.
PREDICTION: Golden State +3 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Warriors made their name as an explosive offense, however, this year’s team has had to dig deeper on the other end of the court. Golden State ranks third in field goal defense (45.1%) and gives up just 110.8 points per home stand.
And while their recent outings came against some of the NBA’s bottom feeders, the Warriors allowed just 103.8 average points over their last six contests, limiting those foes to a collective 41.1 percent shooting—going 2-4 Over/Under.
The Jazz put up some big numbers in their past few games but those all came in Salt Lake City. Utah, which has played only eight road games since the beginning of April, is averaging 114 points away from home in that span but has been limited to 110 or less in regulation in half of those outings. It owns a 2-7 Over/Under record in its last nine games as road favorites.
PREDICTION: Under 226.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Draymond Green headlines a thin frontcourt in Golden State and will draw a ton of attention from Utah’s interior defenders.
The point-forward has the range to stretch the defense and that’s how the Dubs will utilize him, running the ball through Green at the top of the key where he’ll distribute to cutters and options off of screens.
Draymond had 13 assists in the most recent win over OKC and is averaging 10.8 dimes per game this month. He had 12 assists the last time the Warriors played the Jazz—a 131-119 victory as 7.5-point home pups back in March.
PREDICTION: Draymond Green assists Over 8.5 (+104)
Jazz vs Warriors betting card
- Golden State +3 (-110)
- Under 226.5 (-110)
- Draymond Green assists Over 8.5 (+104)
Picks made on 5/10/2021 at 11:07 a.m. ET
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