The Sacramento Kings were sitting pretty. They dominated the New York Knicks early last night and were in total command of the game.
But the tide turned against them in the second half, and a 21-point lead finished as an 11-point deficit. The Kings felt the absences of injured guards Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, and now face a daunting back-to-back against the Boston Celtics on Friday, April 5.
The Celtics have officially wrapped up the No. 1 overall seed throughout the playoffs, but they’re still chasing greatness. With NBA odds of facing a revived Philadelphia 76ers team or the Miami Heat in the first round increasingly likely, Joe Mazzulla wants the Celtics to enter the postseason playing at their best.
My NBA picks and predictions for Kings vs. Celtics take stock of De’Aaron Fox’s struggles this season and how they might manifest against Boston.
Kings vs Celtics predictions
My best bet: De’Aaron Fox Under 25.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)
To many, De’Aaron Fox was a surprise omission from this year’s All-Star team, and I expect when he fails to make All-NBA there will be a similar response from Sacramento Kings fans.
But while the reigning Clutch Player of the Year is having a fine season, it has been a bit of a rollercoaster, and the dips have been too frequent for a player of his caliber.
At 56.3% Fox has below-average true shooting on the season, and some indicators in his numbers suggest he’s suffering athletic decline or playing hurt.
For one, despite being one of the NBA’s quickest guards, he’s getting to the rim on just 19% of his possessions. Per Cleaning the Glass, that is by far the lowest mark of his career and a number that puts him in the bottom-third among all guards.
He’s also finishing much worse at the basket this season than last and is shooting worse from every spot in the midrange as well.
While his 3-point shooting is solid at 36%, that’s somewhat covering for how much of a struggle it’s been from other spots on the floor.
The Boston Celtics are one of the NBA’s best defenses, and so I like the value of shorting Fox on a back-to-back — particularly as the Kings got into a slugfest with the New York Knicks last night.
Fox played 39 minutes as the Kings saw their lead eventually erode to nothing, losing in a lopsided fourth quarter. Fox managed to chip in 29 points, but it wasn’t a particularly encouraging performance.
Fox took 26 shots for so-so efficiency, but it was almost entirely buoyed by him going 6-13 from three (46.2%). That is an outlier for Fox both in volume and efficiency. Fox only went 5-13 inside the arc and struggled to create separation in isolation against the Knicks' interior defenders.
Even if Fox can get separation and drive it will be tough going against Boston. With Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford and shot blocking from a number of their perimeter players, the Celtics have the best interior defense in the NBA.
Per Cleaning the Glass, Boston is the only team in the NBA that’s Top-5 in limiting opponent attempts at the rim as well as opponent field goal percentage allowed at the rim. They prevent the highest-value shots in the NBA better than anyone, further limiting Fox’s options.
The Celtics also have elite defensive guards, and they can mix things up between Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. Holiday can body and wear down the already fatigued Fox, while White can stick with him by sliding through every screen and handoff action.
Fox is averaging just 23.6 points over his last 10 outings and has only had 26 or more twice in that span. Against a stout defense and at a rest disadvantage, I like that trend to continue.
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Kings vs Celtics same-game parlay
De’Aaron Fox Under 25.5 points
Domantas Sabonis Under 18.5 points
Celtics -9.5
Domantas Sabonis’ scoring has also tapered off of late. The Lithuanian big man is averaging 16.5 points over his last 10 and has only scored 19 or more in three of those games.
Porzingis and Horford are both strong matchups against Sabonis, KP because of his length and ability to bother Sabonis’ hook shot, and Horford because he’s mobile and difficult to knock off his spot. For a time, Horford was the best defender against Joel Embiid, while he’s lost a step since then, Sabonis is several steps away from being that level of interior threat.
This game has blowout potential given how shorthanded the Kings are due to injuries and the amount of energy they expended last night against New York. Taking the Celtics at -9.5 is then a natural complement to my two Unders to round out Friday’s same-game parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Kings vs Celtics odds and trends
Kings vs Celtics live odds
Kings vs Celtics opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento +8.5 (-110) | Boston -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Sacramento +325 | Boston -425
- Over/Under: Over 223.5 (-110) | Under 223.5 (-110)
Kings vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Celtics are being opened between 8.5 and 9.5-point favorites with some books now offering it as high as -10.
- Boston is 21-15 against the spread at home this season.
- Sacramento is 4-9 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back.
- Friday’s total came in as low as 222.5 but has grown to as high as 225.5 as of early Friday morning.
- The Under is 22-14-2 in Kings road games.
Kings vs Celtics trend
Sacramento is 4-9 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Celtics.
Kings vs Celtics game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, April 5, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Boston, NBCSCA |
Not intended for use in MA.
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