The Sacramento Kings are feeling good about themselves, winning four games in a row, but things get a little tougher as they try for No. 5 when they visit Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets tonight.
The Nuggets have been one of the better teams in basketball over the past month, while the Kings have mostly beaten up on bottom-feeders during their current run, so it’s not a surprise to see Sacramento as a 5.5-point road dog.
My Kings vs. Nuggets predictions look at what Sactown needs to do to extend this winning streak. Check out my NBA picks below, with tip off at 9 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver.
Kings vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Keegan Murray Over 2.5 threes (+135 at bet365)
My analysis
If the Sacramento Kings want to upset the Denver Nuggets without Domantas Sabonis and extend their winning streak to five games, they'll need to shoot the ball.
Despite having three losses in the last nine games, the Nuggets have been playing fairly good basketball for over a month now, going 12-3 straight up in their last 15 games overall, but that run of good basketball has been off the backs of their elite Nikola Jokic-led offense.
The Nuggets enter this matchup ranked second in offensive rating and effective field goal percentage, but while the offense is a wonder to behold, it's costing them on the other end of the floor.
Denver’s defense isn’t great. The team ranks 17th in defensive rating this season and you can burn them on the perimeter. The Nuggets rank 20th in opponent 3-point attempts and 21st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, allowing the seventh-most made threes surrendered per game.
It doesn’t help that it feels like half of the Nuggets lineup seems to be dealing with some sort of nagging injury, including Jokic and Aaron Gordon. And without Sabonis in the lineup again tonight, you know the Kings are going to be jacking up shots.
One Kings player who has stepped up his game lately is Keegan Murray. He's started all season for the Kings and is averaging 12.4 points per game, but since trading De’Aaron Fox, Murray has started taking more shots and he’s red-hot heading into this matchup.
Murray is draining 43.2% of his 7.3 attempts from 3-point range per game over his last six games and has hit 3+ shots from deep four times during that six-game stretch. He also went 3-for-5 from beyond the arc the only other time he suited up against Denver this season.
His prop sits at 2.5, with the Over paying +135. With the way he's been shooting it, this looks like great value in a favorable matchup like this.
Kings vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Keegan Murray Over 2.5 threes
DeMar DeRozan Under 22.5 points
Over 235.5
While guys like Murray and Malik Monk have been putting up more shots these days, it's come at the expense of DeMar DeRozan. The veteran is averaging 22 points per game over his last six games, scoring 20 or fewer five times during that stretch. And in two matchups against the Nuggets this season, he’s gone for 17 and 24 points.
That has me thinking it will be another low-scoring night for DeRozan. Let’s add Under 22.5 points to this same-game parlay.
And let’s close out this SGP with the Over 235.5. The Nuggets are a great Over team with their elite offense, high pace, and sketchy defense. And while this Kings defense has been better lately, that appears to be more a matter of competition than improved play at that end of the floor.
I’m still not buying that a team with DeRozan and Zach LaVine playing a ton of minutes can be good defensively.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kings vs Nuggets odds
Kings vs Nuggets live odds
Kings vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento +6.5 | Denver -6.5
- Moneyline: Sacramento +220 | Denver -270
- Over/Under: Over 236.5 | Under 236.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Kings vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Nuggets opened this Western Conference showdown as 6.5-point home favorites, but early bettors are siding with the Kings and have moved this spread to 5.5.
- The Kings are the hot team right now, but three of their four wins came against Dallas, Utah, and Charlotte. The Nuggets won and covered the two previous meetings in this matchup earlier in the year, but that was before the Kings went through their roster makeover last month.
- The total hit the board at 236.5 and has been bet down as low as 235 as of Wednesday afternoon.
- This elite Nuggets offense and suspect defense have made them a great Over bet this season, going 35-25-1 O/U. The Kings are 33-27 O/U this season but have cashed the Under in each game during this four-game winning streak.
Kings vs Nuggets trend
The Nuggets have only covered the first-half spread in 34 of their last 83 games dating back to last season for -22.65 units and a -24% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Kings vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCS-California, ALT |
Kings vs Nuggets latest injuries
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