Kings vs Warriors Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Dubs Won't Get Outfoxed

You didn’t think it would be that easy, did you?

The Sacramento Kings missed an excellent chance to put the defending NBA champs on the ropes in Game 3, and now find themselves in a fight with a full-powered Golden State Warriors squad in Game 4 of their Western Conference quarterfinal series on Sunday.

After losing the opening games of this first-round set in Sacramento and playing without the suspended Draymond Green in Game 3, Golden State held home court for a 114-97 victory, and is installed as a 7.5-point favorite to tie this series at 2-2 this afternoon.

I investigate the action and adjustments on the spread and total, and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Game 4 between the Kings and Warriors on April 23.

Kings vs Warriors Game 4 best odds

Kings vs Warriors Game 4 picks and predictions

The Warriors have somewhat solved Sacramento’s high-octane attack, forcing the league’s top-rated offense to play out of its comfort zone.

Steve Kerr has put the breaks on the Kings’ movement at the top of the key, plugging up passing lanes and not allowing Sacramento’s guards any space to get a head of steam and attack the rim, which in turn generates opportunities off pick-and-roll and kick outs.

Star guard De’Aaron Fox has felt that pinch the past two games. After leading the charge for the Kings with 38 points in Game 1, Fox has posted outputs of 24 and 26 points, and is shooting a collective 19-for-45 from the field (42%) in those outings. That’s well off his average clip of 51.2%.

Fox’s points total for Game 4 is sitting at 26.5, which is a point lower than his closing prop total of 27.5 in Game 3, and two points shy of his 28.5-point Game 2 points prop — numbers that were inflated due to his 38-point eruption in the series opener (which went Over 26.5).

Player projections for Fox this afternoon range from as low as 22 points to as high as 27, but not any higher. My number is more optimistic than some at 24.6, which is still comfortably Under the Over/Under on points being served up this Sunday. Fox finished the post-break slate averaging 24.5 points per road game, but playoff basketball and Kerr’s game-to-game adjustments are uncharted waters for Sacramento’s star.

Kings coach Mike Brown must shake this offense up and do so against one of the best home courts in the league (Golden State is No. 3 in defensive rating in the Chase Center at 108.4) that just got stronger with the return of two key cogs on defense.

Fox finished Game 3 just 9-for-22 from the floor despite having an advantage over the Warriors’ softer backcourt defenders, as Jordan Poole played more as a starter with the Draymond Green suspension and top one-on-one guard Gary Payton Jr. out due to illness. He’ll have tougher checks with Payton and Green back in the mix this afternoon.

The taller game totals from the first three stops in this series are dwindling, with the Game 4 Over/Under shrinking from 238 to 237. Sacramento is especially seeing a rather low team total as seven-point road dogs, at 114.5 points. Fox is in for a tough fight if he's going to get to his average, let alone top this point total today.

My best bet: Fox Under 26.5 points (-105)

Kings vs Warriors Game 4 spread analysis

After their convincing Game 3 win at home, and with Green coming back from his one-game ban, the Warriors opened between -7.5 and -8 for Game 4 on Sunday.

As of Sunday morning, the market consensus is Golden State -7.5, with Covers Consensus showing 57% of picks taking the points with the Kings. According to BetMGM books, 58% of ticket count and 60% of handle is also taking the road underdog in Game 4.

Sacramento outclassed the Warriors at home but ran into a desperate Dubs team in Game 3, and one that plays its best basketball inside the Chase Center. The home/road splits have been a big talking point for the Warriors this season, with the team boasting a net rating of +7.7 on its own court, which has led to an NBA-best 28-13-1 ATS mark as a host.

The Kings, however, were the best road bets in the Association all season, with a 27-15 ATS count as visitors after failing to cover as six-point underdogs in Game 3. That said, the Sacramento team that took the court Thursday looked nothing like the group that built bankrolls on the road.

The Kings’ top-ranked offense sputtered for just 38% success from the floor, including an 11-for-47 outing from beyond the 3-point arc. That was a carryover from Game 2, in which Sacramento won, but was taken out of its gameplan that produced almost 121 points per game.

Golden State head coach Steve Kerr has quickly figured out how throw a wrench into Sacramento’s offense, not allowing the Kings’ guards to get loose from pick-and-roll and handoffs at the top of the key. Instead, he’s opting to play off center Domantas Sabonis and plug up the passing lanes, taking the center out as a playmaker and the linchpin of this attack.

Sacramento head coach Mike Brown quickly needs to counter before all the momentum swings to Golden State, but he runs the risk of getting far too small if he limits his 7-footer in the rotation. On top of this pickle, the Warriors' defense will be even stronger in Game 4 with Green back in the mix as well as Payton Jr., who missed Thursday due to an illness.

Kings vs Warriors Game 4 Over/Under analysis

The totals for this Western Conference quarterfinal set have respected the firepower on the floor for these two teams, with closing numbers from 237.5 to 238.5 to 241 for Game 3. But with the past two games going Under and neither side showcasing their scoring, the Game 4 total hit the board at 238 points and has since slimmed to 237.

According to BetMGM books, the Under is drawing one-sided action with 85% of bets and 86% of handle banking on a low-scoring finish to Game 4 in Golden State.

Sacramento’s 38% shooting night in Game 3 wasn’t that much better than Golden State’s 40% success. The Warriors did knock down 16 of 50 from deep, and more importantly, limited their turnovers to just 11 after coughing up a total of 35 in the opening two games. The Kings enjoyed 41 easy points off turnovers in the first two contests, but managed only seven points off turnovers in Game 3.

A thin Warriors roster leaned heavily on the starting lineup for points, with Poole added to the first five with Green suspended for Game 3. His return not only gives Golden State more depth on defense, but returns the key piece of the Warriors’ offensive approach, with Green stretching the Kings' defense and facilitating from the high post.

The pace rating for Game 3 was 102.5, which was a tick slower than the tempo from the first two games. The series has an overall pace rating of 103.67, which is the fastest of all first-round playoff series. But neither team has shot especially well through the first three games — even in the 126-123 Game 1 result.

Sacramento’s biggest downtick has come beyond the arc, where it’s shooting 32-for-117 in the postseason for an average of less than 11 makes per game, compared to its regular season rate of 13.8 triples a contest. You can chalk some of that up to postseason nerves for this young group, with the Kings going 19-for-72 on uncontested 3-pointers in the playoffs. 

Kings vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Kings have been underdogs of +4.5 or higher only 13 times this season, going 2-11 SU and 6-7 ATS in those contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Warriors.

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