Kings vs Warriors Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Sabonis Tries to Get Over the Hump

NBA Rivals Week continues with a banger of a matchup between the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors on Thursday, January 25. While not as storied as some of the historic rivalries in the Association, the Kings and Warriors generated plenty of drama and animosity when they went a full seven games in the first round of last year’s playoffs.

The Warriors are still reeling after the untimely death of assistant coach Dejan Milojević, with their win last night against the Atlanta Hawks their first time on the court since his passing. It was a charged, emotional atmosphere at Chase Center, as much memorial as a basketball game at times, but Golden State ultimately channeled those emotions into a much-needed win.

The Kings have been treading water, playing well enough to stay in most games but not well enough to beat quality opponents. They need a jolt of motivation, and the chance to get a win against the team that sent them home in April might just be what the doctor ordered. They're favored in the NBA odds to boot.

My NBA picks and predictions for Kings vs. Warriors believe Golden State has a proven formula for defending Domantas Sabonis.

Kings vs Warriors odds

Kings vs Warriors predictions

The Sacramento Kings had the No.1 offense in the NBA last season largely because of the one-two punch provided by De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Their different ways of impacting the game led the Kings to end a historic playoff drought, with Fox slashing and driving at the basket while Sabonis pounded opponents inside and facilitated dribble handoffs above the break.

But when it came to their playoffs against the Golden State Warriors, while Fox’s contributions only grew in efficacy, Sabonis faltered. The Warriors drew up a game plan starting in Game 2 that almost took Sabonis, a deserving All-NBA player, out of the series.

After averaging just shy of 20 points per game on outstanding efficiency in the regular season, Sabonis finished with just 16.4 points per on a putrid 51.7% true shooting.

The Warriors zeroed in on Sabonis' one weakness as an offensive player and squeezed every last drop out of it. They dropped off him completely in his DHOs, challenging him to shoot from distance over and over again, something he simply was not comfortable doing. It shook his confidence and Kevon Looney ended up dominating him in the series.

The Kings for the most part are playing worse this season than last season, at least on offense. With Draymond Green back in action, I’m betting Golden State implements a similar strategy on Thursday. With recent history as our guide, these Domantas Sabonis odds are simply too appealing to pass up.

My best bet: Domantas Sabonis Under 20.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

Kings vs Warriors same-game parlay

Domantas Sabonis Under 20.5 points

Kings -1.5

De'Aaron Fox Over 26.5 points

+550 at DraftKings

This is a back-to-back for the Warriors and not the usual kind. The ceremony last night for Dejan Milojević was incredibly moving and a credit to everyone involved. This is also clearly an emotionally draining and trying time for everyone in the organization.

While I’m sure they were relieved to get the win on Wednesday, it is clear that basketball is not the priority right now for Golden State, and rightly so. That sets up today's game as one fraught with the potential for an emotional hangover, in addition to all the normal difficulties that come with playing a game against the Kings on a night with dead legs.

For Fox’s part, as much as the playoff series against the Warriors revealed the limitations of Sabonis as a primary offensive weapon, it also proved that Fox is a postseason stud.

His craft on the ball and his burst, and now deadly outside shot, make him a nightmare matchup for a Warriors team short on quality (and quick) guard defenders. Fox is also going to be looking to redeem himself after an off night last time out against the Atlanta Hawks.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kings vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

The Kings opened as -1.5 point road favorites against Golden State and that’s risen as high as -2.5 at some sportsbooks.

Sacramento has the best against-the-spread record of any road team this season, covering in 65% of away games at 13-7. The Kings also proved in the playoffs that they can go into Chase Center and steal big wins. They won’t be afraid of that environment.

Otherwise, the Kings have been middle of the road in just about every way this season. After a year with the league’s best offense and among the worst defenses, they’ve regressed on both sides of the ball to approach the league average.

These teams are largely on par when it comes to point differential, which is why I think the rest advantage for the Kings is going to prove pivotal. 

The projected score is sky-high, with the total hovering between 240.5 and 241.5 at most sportsbooks.

The Warriors being on a back-to-back is crucial, but not decisive. Fatigue can cut either way. Dead legs mean fewer made jumpers, but it also could mean the Kings parade to the rim in transition or off careless turnovers.

The Kings have struggled to hit shots outside of Golden 1 Center this season, which has seen the Under cash in 13 of their last 20 road games. But the Over is 14-8 when the Warriors play at home this season.

Kings vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Kings are 13-7 ATS on the road in their last 20 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Warriors.

Kings vs Warriors game info

Kings vs Warriors latest injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic