Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: No Garden Party for Garland

It might not be the prettiest by contemporary standards, but the playoff series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks has a distinct aesthetic appeal to those of us who grew up watching the Eastern Conference wars of the 90s.

After a raucous, grueling first two games in Cleveland, the series is split 1-1 with the action shifting to Madison Square Garden on Friday, April 21. The Cavaliers are riding high following a dominant Game 2 win, but the Knicks are no doubt also feeling confident having earned the split and getting their first chance to win at home.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 3 of Cavaliers vs. Knicks believe that Darius Garland will struggle to repeat his brilliant performance from Game 2.

Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 3 best odds

Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 3 picks and predictions

Darius Garland had the performance of the night when these two teams faced off on Tuesday, totaling 42 combined points, rebounds, and assists en route to a critical Cleveland Cavaliers victory.

After Donovan Mitchell had been the primary initiator in Game 1, the New York Knicks were ill-prepared for the avalanche unleashed by the fourth-year guard from Vanderbilt. But while the Knicks did a poor job keeping up with Garland’s outburst in Game 2, I’m expecting a much different performance during Friday’s game.

For one thing, Garland, like most young players, had a significant gap between his home and road production this regular season. He averaged four fewer combined points, rebounds, and assists on the road vs. at home this season. He also shot nearly five percent worse from three, a similar drop from the field, and perhaps most importantly a nearly 10% drop from the foul line. The foul shooting drop-off is an indicator to me that the pressure of road environments is a substantial factor in Garland’s shooting confidence. 

While Darius was superb in Game 2 against the Knicks, doing so at home with their backs against the wall is a far cry from the difficulty that will be following up that performance in MSG. This is after all Garland’s first playoff series, and he’s yet to be tested in the gauntlet of a hostile road environment.

The Knicks will also have adapted to the more Garland-centric looks, instead of being solely concerned with stopping Mitchell in the pick and roll, they’ll do a better job tracking Garland off-ball and will potentially resume blitzing him as well. Critically, Garland’s success in Game 2 was a product of Cleveland having five functional offensive players on the floor at one time, something they struggled with in Game 1. 

As much as I might be predicting a down performance from Garland, that’s also because I don’t expect Caris LeVert to provide the same steady presence on offense, nor do I expect much from Cedi Osman, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Without those additional shooters, the Knicks will be able to trap Garland aggressively, forcing Cleveland’s bigs into larger offensive roles.

And lastly, as we’ve seen all year when this Cleveland team gets tight, they default to isolating Mitchell. That’s been largely successful for them this season overall, even if it may have contributed to some clutch time foibles. Mitchell is a playoff player, and there is zero chance he will shrink from the moment if the offense gets tighter around him. In such a case, I can easily imagine Garland deferring to Mitchell again as he did for much of the duration of Game 1.

The Knicks were caught off guard by Garland’s high level of play in Game 2, but they should be ready for Friday, and he should have trouble matching that kind of production in a hostile playoff environment.

My best bet: Garland Under 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)

Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 3 spread analysis

It should not be surprising that the Cavaliers came out and dominated Game 2. Per Kevin Pelton at The Athletic, home teams that lose the first game of a playoff series have now won 19 of the last 20 Game 2s. So, while the Cavaliers imposing their will on the Knicks was impressive, one should not overcorrect too much when considering Friday's spread.

That being said, Cleveland did change things up in Game 2 which could carry over to today and give New York some problems. For one, they did a much better job of hunting Jalen Brunson. That was made possible by the outstanding play of LeVert, who stepped up in a huge way after Isaac Okoro went out of the game in early foul trouble and never returned. 

LeVert is a rollercoaster of a player, going from borderline star-level to invisible depending on the night. But when he’s going, he’s an isolation scorer and perimeter shooter that opens up everything for the Cavs. 

The Knicks also have a lot of reasons for self-belief in Game 3. While Game 2 was a drubbing in favor of Cleveland, the Knicks had been dealing with a series of injuries and limitations to Julius Randle and Josh Hart, both of whom are apparently 100% and set for their normal rotation heading into tonight's game. While the Cavs out-muscled the Knicks in Game 2, I’d be shocked to see that happen at Madison Square Garden with the crowd behind them. 

I think a line of 1.5 favoring the home team is right on the money, so I wouldn’t advise betting the spread for today’s game.

Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 3 Over/Under analysis

This has been the archetypal Eastern Conference series. While the Knicks finished the regular season as the third-best offense in the NBA (per Cleaning the Glass), the Cavaliers have put a serious damper on them through two games. The Knicks are a poor shooting team, and while a homecourt bump is expected, Cleveland’s two big alignments have stymied many of the Knicks' preferred actions, providing particular difficulty for Randle and RJ Barrett, who like to do their damage right at the basket. 

Garland and Mitchell have also done incredible work with on-ball pressure that has so far throttled the play of Immanuel Quickley and forced Brunson into some difficult shots. In general, they’ve bottled up the Knicks, forcing them into uncharacteristic turnovers and possessions that go nowhere.

But the Knicks have similarly elevated their game on the defensive end. They surprised the Cavs by committing to a blitzing or hard hedging scheme from minute one of the first game, eschewing their traditional drop coverage that Mitchell and Garland would surely have torn up.

A line of 211.5 is about the smallest total you will ever see in the modern NBA, but given that each of these teams have failed to eclipse 100 points once already in this series, I’d still lean toward the Under.

Knicks vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the Cavaliers' last four overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Cavaliers.

Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 3 game info

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