The San Antonio Spurs have won two in a row, including one of the biggest NBA odds upsets of the season when they took down the Phoenix Suns without Victor Wembanyama last Monday.
But their opponent on Friday, March 29, is not likely to show the same lack of urgency that defines this year's Suns.
The New York Knicks have their flaws but losing to teams they should beat is not one of them. Despite the ongoing absences of Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, they are blowing sub .500 teams out of the water.
My free NBA picks for Knicks vs. Spurs detail why New York is unusually strong against the spread against the league’s bottom feeders.
Knicks vs Spurs predictions
My best bet: Knicks -9.5 (-110 at bet365)
The New York Knicks are still without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, but with the emergence of key backups, they’re dominating all but the elite teams in the NBA.
While this version of the Knicks isn’t good enough to follow through on their lofty postseason ambitions, it has settled into a sustainable and potent formula.
On one end the Bockers are a lockdown defensive team with guys who force gobs of turnovers. On the other, they bomb threes relentlessly, dominate the offensive glass, and whenever they need a good shot late in the clock, the ball finds Jalen Brunson.
Nothing they do is overly complicated, but is brutally effective, particularly against the have-nots of the NBA world, like the 17-56 San Antonio Spurs.
Indeed, there is arguably no better team in the NBA at taking care of business than these Knicks. Not only are the Knicks 26-2 against sub .500 teams, they lead the NBA in wire-to-wire victories with 12 on the season.
Their recent handiwork includes a 44-point win over the Toronto Raptors, a 25-point win over the Detroit Pistons and a 12-point win over the Brooklyn Nets. Per Cleaning the Glass, they have a +8.9 spread differential over the past two weeks. Despite opening as more than double-digit favorites against both the Pistons and Raptors, they are still far outperforming oddsmaker's expectations.
But it’s not just that the Knicks are good and play hard that makes them a strong bet to pounce on struggling teams like the Spurs, a big part of it is down to the personality of their head coach.
Tom Thibodeau is inarguably a good coach, but he certainly has his quirks. One of them is Thibs' almost psychotic fear of giving up a lead, meaning he leaves many of his starters in all the way through a fourth quarter, even when nursing a 20-point edge.
Not only that, but he’ll call a timeout if his team makes a single unfocused offensive play or half-hearted rotation on defense, no matter the size of the lead. He is utterly demanding and is never satisfied with mediocre effort.
All that is a boon to New York's chances to cover. When they get up on a team, they never take their foot off the gas.
Knicks vs Spurs same-game parlay
Knicks -9.5
Miles McBride Over 16.5 points
Miles McBride 3+ threes
Miles McBride appears to be the latest Knicks development success story. After playing sparingly through his first two seasons, he’s carved out a temporary starting spot as the Knicks remain without Randle and OG.
Now that he’s getting real tick, Thibs can’t take him off the floor. Since being elevated into the starting unit McBride (or Deuce as he’s affectionately known) is averaging 44.3 minutes per game and is hitting 48.9% of his threes.
While McBride is turning his heads with his improvement as a 3-point shooter, this also didn’t come out of nowhere. McBride was an elite pull-up jump shooter in his second season for the West Virginia Mountaineers and he finished that season shooting 41.1% from three.
While his 3-point shooting at the NBA level before now has been erratic, he has been a monster in the G-League. Through seven G-League games Deuce averaged 49.2% on 8.4 attempts and a cool 27.9 points per game.
As I’m expecting this to be a blowout, I suspect that Brunson will play sparingly in the second half, as he has done since Deuce became a starter. That means more minutes, opportunity, and likely production for McBride.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Knicks vs Spurs odds and trends
Knicks vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: New York -9.5 (-110) | San Antonio +9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York -450 | San Antonio +350
- Over/Under: Over 216 (-110) | Under 216 (-110)
Knicks vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Some sportsbooks opened with the Knicks as little as 7.5-point favorites, which rose as high as -10.5 but is now available -9.5 at most sportsbooks.
- The Knicks are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games and 20-15 ATS on the road.
- Friday’s total opened at 217.5 but early action was seen that drop to 215.5 at most sportsbooks.
Knicks vs Spurs betting trend to know
The Knicks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Spurs.
Knicks vs Spurs game info
| Location: | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date: | Friday, March 29, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MSG, Bally Southwest |
Not intended for use in MA.
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