Two new-look lineups strut their stuff on the Sunday stage when the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Dallas Mavericks for a matinee matchup.
Los Angeles and Dallas both opened the post-break slate with a victory earlier in the week. The Lakers beat the Warriors at home, showcasing some of those recent additions, while the Mavs stomped the Spurs, allowing Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to ease into the second half of the season.
While this is the third meeting between these foes, the rosters and rotations from those previous two run-ins look very different from what we’ll see on the floor in Dallas tonight.
I break down how these teams are built now, size up the spread and total, and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Lakers at Mavericks on February 26.
Lakers vs Mavericks best odds
Lakers vs Mavericks picks and predictions
Early action on this game is leaning toward the Los Angeles Lakers. Is that money getting sucked into a small sample of success or capitalizing on the roster renaissance in La-La Land?
The problem with sports betting is that if you wait around to find out, you often miss your window. And with the Lakers playing their best basketball of the season straddling the All-Star break (which has allowed LeBron James and Anthony Davis to refresh), the time to strike with the Purple and Gold is now.
Los Angeles has put together two very complete wins in the past two outings, showcasing its revamped scoring depth while also picking up the intensity on the defensive end. The Lakers are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four contests – a stretch that should be mired with chemistry and cohesion issues considering all the new faces in the locker room.
But L.A. has come together quickly under head coach Darvin Ham, flipping an advanced net rating from -1.1 to +6.3 in that small window. This is as good and as healthy as the Lakers have been all season long, pushed ahead by playoff pressure as the team enters a crucial three-game road trip starting against the Dallas Mavericks.
And speaking of the Mavericks, this team is getting an unwarranted bump for its most recent result: a 26-point thrashing of the listless Spurs at home Thursday. That win, which was not cut and dry until a lopsided fourth quarter, snapped a three-game slide for a team going through similar growing pains following the Kyrie Irving trade.
Granted, the Mavericks ran into some stiff competition in recent games, taking on Denver, Minnesota, Sacramento (twice) and the Clippers to kick off the Irving era. But the defensive issues that were there before the Kyrie trade remain and may be worse after Dorian Finney-Smith was shipped off and with the frontcourt running very thin with bigs Maxi Kleber and Davis Bertans out of action.
The diminutive Mavericks have been pushed around inside in recent contests, watching their last six foes average more than 59 points in the paint and fire at a collective 52.6% from the floor in that stretch. Los Angeles is third in average points in the paint (55.9 per game) and will also dominate the glass vs. one of the worst rebounding teams in the league – even when it has its full frontcourt.
With the Lakers on the other side of a two-possession underdog in a critical contest and playing their best basketball since their bubble run, we’ll stick our neck out with the small sample and back L.A. on Sunday afternoon.
My best bet: Lakers +4 (-105 at PointsBet)
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Lakers vs Mavericks spread analysis
NBA odds opened the Mavs as big as 4.5-point home favorites for this matinee matchup and early play on the Lakers slimmed the spread to -4. Some books have gone as short as Dallas -3.5 as of Sunday morning.
Los Angeles is expecting to have both Davis and LeBron in action, but guard D’Angelo Russell is doubtful with an ankle sprain suffered in the game with Golden State Thursday.
Russell was finding his role as L.A.’s primary backcourt scorer in his first four games since being traded to the Lakers and his absence will be notable against Dallas’ guard-heavy lineup.
Leaning into recent matchups between these clubs could be a waste of time considering the Mavericks’ player movement for the Irving trade, the Lakers’ recent overhaul, and the fact Davis missed both games against Dallas (Mavs won on Christmas Day and won in OT on Jan. 12).
Looking at the small sample for these current rotations, we just watched L.A. play a solid outing against the Warriors earlier this week, despite James slogging through a poor shooting effort. LeBron finished with 13 points on 5 of 20 shooting but seven 3-pointers from Malik Beasley and 68 points off the bench patched over that hole in the box score.
As for the Mavericks, they took advantage of a terrible Spurs squad for a 142-point outpouring but that final score doesn’t tell the full story of Thursday’s victory, which was just a 9-point game entering the fourth quarter. Dallas rolled San Antonio 43-26 in the final frame, securing the win and cover as 14-point chalk.
Los Angeles has won and covered in three of its last four outings spaced over the All-Star break, improving to 28-31-1 ATS on the year with a 13-17-1 ATS count as a visitor.
Dallas, on the other hand, is 3-3 SU and ATS since the Irving deal and snapped a three-game skid with the win over the Spurs. The Mavericks are a dismal 22-36-3 ATS on the season with a 10-17-3 ATS mark as hosts.
Lakers vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under hit the board at 237 points on Saturday night and jumped to as high as 238.5 as of Sunday morning.
We do have a contrast in pace between these two offenses, as the Lakers rank among the top tempo teams in the league while the Mavericks are among the more methodical. However, in six games with Irving at the wheel, Dallas has watched its tempo tick up a bit.
That’s helped four of those six outings go Over the closing total, with the Mavs boasting an advanced offensive rating of 122.4 in that span (115.2 pre-Kyrie). Dallas is still one of the busiest teams from beyond the arc, and the spacing created by having both Irving and Doncic on the floor leaves lots of open looks from distance.
The Lakers’ backcourt woes may be softened with the recent additions of Beasley, Russell, and Rui Hachimura. Los Angeles has struggled all year to get reliable outputs from the perimeter, to complement the interior dominance of James and Davis, and hit 16 triples in the win over the Warriors.
While one game isn’t a definitive answer to those questions, Dallas’ defense doesn’t provide the stiffest pushback. Los Angeles, however, flexed its defensive muscle in recent outings. Over the past four contests, L.A. has limited foes to an average of 110.8 points on a collective 42.6% shooting, including less than 34% from beyond the arc.
These Western rivals stayed below the closing total of 236.5 points despite going into overtime in a 119-115 Mavs win in January and topped the number of 232 with a 124-115 Dallas win on Xmas Day. Again, these rosters look very different from those previous matchups, so don’t put too much weight into those results.
On the season, Los Angeles is 31-29 Over/Under with a 18-13 O/U record on the road. Dallas is 34-27 O/U overall with an 18-12 O/U mark at home.
Lakers vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Mavericks are just 8-21-2 ATS as a favorite of -3.5 or greater this season (29%). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Mavericks.
Lakers vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, February 26, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
