The Lakers and Nuggets have enjoyed an entertaining rivalry over the last two seasons highlighted by some excellent playoff matchups. Unfortunately, tonight’s matchup could be a snoozer with LeBron James out and Luka Doncic’s status up in the air.
My Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions expect Denver to win in blowout fashion at Ball Arena tonight. Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the home team and the points.
Lakers vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet: Nuggets -14 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This is a monstrous spread between two of the top teams in the Western Conference, but I’m confidently backing the Denver Nuggets to light up the Los Angeles Lakers tonight at Ball Arena. This is a familiar matchup for Nikola Jokic and Co., and they’re fresh off a blowout loss to the hated Timberwolves. To say the Nuggets will be motivated to get a win tonight is an understatement.
The Lakers rolled to eight straight wins after the All-Star break before dropping to the Celtics. The loss wasn’t the biggest headline of the evening, as LeBron James suffered a groin injury that will keep him sidelined for 1-2 weeks. No LeBron? Big problem.
The Lakers are 3-3 straight up without LeBron this season but just 1-2 since the Anthony Davis trade. The Lakers have a 116.2 offensive rating with James in the lineup and a 113.9 offensive rating without him. The team’s defensive rating falls slightly from 114.5 to 115.1 with James out, and the team has scored 2.3 points per game fewer with him on the sideline.
Over the Lakers’ three-game losing streak (two played without James), the Lakers’ 119.2 defensive rating is seventh-worst in the Association, the 108.2 offensive rating in fourth-worst, and the -10.9 net rating is third-worst. The Nuggets have the seventh-best net rating at home this season at 6.3, and the Lakers have the 14th-worst net rating on the road at -2.7.
This has been a lopsided matchup over the last two seasons with Denver winning eight of 10 head to head and covering in six. Luka Doncic scored 45 against the Bucks last night, and the Lakers still lost by 20. Austin Reaves chipped in 28, and he and Doncic combined for 73 of the team’s 106 points. It’ll be rough go on offense for the Lakers tonight. Size will be a concern here as well. With Jaxson Hayes and Rui Hachimura out, Los Angeles will have a difficult time contending with the size of Denver’s big starting five.
Doncic is not yet on the injury report for tonight’s game, but he was non-committal when asked by reporters if he’d play both legs of the Thursday-Friday back-to-back set. I expect him to sit this one out in a game that the Lakers are unlikely to be competitive in no matter his availability.
Oddsmakers are leaning that way too by setting this spread so high, and I’m taking the Nuggets and the points in what should be a blowout win for the home-team Nuggets against a Lakers team missing its superstar duo.
Lakers vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Nuggets -14
Under 230.5
Nikola Jokic triple-double
The Nuggets should have this one wrapped up in the third quarter, and East Coast fans can head to bed without FOMO (fear of missing out). With victory in hand, the Nuggets will send out their reserves, and the Lakers will score a few extra points in garbage time, but this one will hit the Under as Denver runs away with it. The Under has hit in eight of the last 10 head-to-head matchups between these two teams. Make it nine of 11 after this one.
I’m not expecting a monster scoring night for Jokic, but he’ll have a clear size advantage on the glass, and I expect him to get teammates involved while scoring at least 10 points of his own. Jokic has delivered a triple-double in 29 of 60 games this season, including one of two against the Lakers. He’s posted a triple-double in four of his last 10 against LA dating back to last season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lakers vs Nuggets score prediction
Score prediction: Nuggets 127, Lakers 103
The Lakers got rocked by 20 points on Thursday, and I expect them to suffer an equally bad, if not worse, loss tonight with another star potentially out and facing a quality opponent on the road.
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Lakers vs Nuggets odds
Lakers vs Nuggets live odds
Lakers vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +6 (-110) | Denver -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +185 | Denver -225
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 (-110) | Under 225.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Lakers vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Los Angeles is 35-27-1 ATS this season.
- Denver is 6-3-1 ATS across its last 10.
- The Lakers have hit the Under in eight of the last 10.
- The Nuggets are 32-33 to the Under this season.
Lakers vs Nuggets trend
The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 70 games (-20.65 Units / -25% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Lakers vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Lakers vs Nuggets latest injuries
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