Mavericks vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Giannis Takes Over the Paint

An MVP showdown is on the cards tonight as Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks visit Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks.

Milwaukee is quietly hovering near the top of the Eastern Conference — despite Khris Middleton’s ongoing absence — and used a dominant second half to steamroller the Cleveland Cavaliers 117-102 last time out.

For the Mavs, this is the second game of a back-to-back set after a hard-fought 105-100 loss in Toronto last night. Dallas is now 1-6 on the road this season and things get no easier tonight.

Read on for our Mavericks vs. Bucks NBA betting picks and predictions.

Mavericks vs Bucks best odds

Mavericks vs Bucks picks and predictions

Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s stellar play at both ends, the Bucks continue to look like a title contender despite missing key men — and “The Greek Freak” is well placed to dominate this matchup against a Dallas team short on frontcourt options.

Fresh off a 38-point, nine-rebound night against the Cavaliers, Antetokounmpo is in a great rhythm. In fact, he’s had over 35 points in each of his last three games. That’s a bad sign for the Mavericks — yes, they’re allowing the second-fewest points per game this season (106.4) but their rotation looks ill-equipped to keep Antetokounmpo out of the paint.

Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber will likely be Jason Kidd’s first choices for what is one of the toughest defensive assignments in the league, but Antetokounmpo will have a clear edge in size and athleticism. As for rim protection, JaVale McGee is barely in the rotation and Kidd has understandably been reluctant to try Christian Wood at center.

“The Greek Freak” should also be a force on the boards. He’s averaging 11 rebounds a night, and the Mavericks are pulling down a league-worst 38 rebounds a game. That spells trouble against Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis. There should be plenty of second-chance points on offer for the Bucks’ frontcourt.

The fatigue factor just makes life tougher for Dallas after last night’s disappointing loss to a banged-up Toronto Raptors team. I see Antetokounmpo delivering an explosive performance — as a scorer and on the glass — as a timely reminder that he belongs in any MVP conversation.

My best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 43.5 points + rebounds (-104)

Mavericks vs Bucks spread analysis

As the fresher team playing on its home court, Milwaukee enters tonight’s matchup as the clear favorite with the oddsmakers. But it’s more than just that — the Bucks have a clearer identity and greater secondary scoring options.

Jrue Holiday, Lopez, and Jevon Carter have all had their moments in recent weeks, chipping in with timely baskets to preserve leads when Antetokounmpo is on the bench. With so many holdovers from the 2021 championship team, this Milwaukee group just knows how to grind out wins together.

The threat of a Luka Doncic masterclass is very real, but I like the Bucks’ defense to do enough to take the ball out of the Slovenian’s hands and use its length to close off passing lanes, especially after flexing its defensive muscles on Friday night by holding Cleveland to just 10 points in the third quarter. Plus, the Raptors provided a good blueprint against Doncic last night, holding him to 15 field goal attempts. 

The Mavericks’ struggles on the road can’t be overlooked either. Kidd has preached patience, but it’s tough to see Dallas turning the corner until a reliable second scorer emerges alongside Doncic.

Mavericks vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

The Mavericks’ offense has been a wild ride for bettors in recent weeks, with Doncic and company capable of lights-out shooting nights (127 points against the Denver Nuggets, 112 points against the Boston Celtics) but equally prone to scoring droughts. Dallas has scored 100 points or fewer in three of its last five games.

Tonight’s game feels likelier to skew towards the latter category, with heavy legs in back-to-back action and facing a solid Bucks defense. Holiday is the type of defensive stopper who can at least limit Doncic to tough looks, while Lopez and Antetokounmpo will allow the Mavericks’ guards nothing easy at the rim.

While the Milwaukee offense can get going in a hurry, the numbers suggest a low-scoring battle tonight.

Mavericks vs Bucks betting trend to know

The Mavericks are an ice-cold 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record, and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Bucks.

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