NBA betting can be incredibly frustrating with the status of so many stars up in the air until the last minute.
Tonight's Western Conference matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings is the perfect example as four Mavs starters are listed as either questionable or doubtful, including All-NBA guard Luka Doncic.
We try to make sense of the injury madness with our best free Mavericks vs. Kings picks and predictions for Monday, April 26, with tipoff at 10 p.m. ET.
Mavericks vs Kings odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe Mavericks bounced around a bit as a favorite at DraftKings, opening -5.5 late Sunday night, moving to -6 this morning, dropping to -5 early this evening, then rising to -6.5, where the line stands at 7:15 p.m. ET. Dallas is attracting 69 percent of spread bets and 74 percent of spread cash. The total dipped from 227.5 to 223.5, then rebounded to 226 and is now 225.5, with 85 percent of bets/78 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMavericks vs Kings betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: Luka Doncic G (Probable), Kristaps Porzingis PF (Doubtful), Josh Richardson G (Doubtful), Maxi Kleber PF (Questionable).
Kings: De'Aaron Fox PG (Out), Marvin Bagley III PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the Kings last six games playing on zero days rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Kings.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Mavericks have won three in a row but are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and might be without Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Josh Richardson, and Maxi Kleber tonight.
Doncic would obviously be the biggest blow for Dallas as he leads the team with 28.5 points and 8.8 assists per game. The 22-year-old phenom played through an elbow injury in Saturday's win against the Lakers but was in obvious discomfort, though he has been upgraded to probable as of early Monday evening.
That said, Dallas is sixth in the Western Conference standings and will desperately want to hold on to that spot and avoid the play-in games. Don't be surprised to see Doncic tough it out and play tonight because the Mavs can't afford to let easily winnable games like this go to waste.
The Kings are just 2-11 SU and 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 games and are 25th in the NBA in average scoring margin at minus-4.3 points per game.
While the status of Doncic is up in the air, the status of the Kings best player, De'Aaron Fox, is crystal clear—and it's not good for Sacramento bettors. Fox leads the team with 25.2 points and 7.2 assists per game but has been placed in the league's health and safety protocols and will be out until at least May 4.
The Mavs lost by 14 points to Sacramento last week but will be in a good spot for revenge against the Kings, who are on the tail end of a back-to-back tonight. Take the Dallas to win and cover.
PREDICTION: Dallas -6 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Over/Under is a tough one to figure out because the Mavs have been one of the best Under bets this season while the Kings have been cashing Overs. Dallas is 21-10 to the Under in their last 31 games while Sacramento is 19-9 O/U in its previous 28 games at home.
That said, the Mavs are 9-2 to the Over in their last 11 away contests against teams with a losing record at home, while the Kings are 6-0 to the Over in their last six games without rest.
When these teams met up last week in Dallas, they combined for 228 points with the Kings going off for 121. The Mavs scored just 107 points in that game but expect them to perform much better tonight against a Kings team that ranks dead-last in the league in nearly every defensive metric and surrenders a whopping 120.1 ppg at home.
Even with injuries piling up for both teams, we're leaning to the Over 223.5.
PREDICTION: Over 223.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
With Fox out of commission, the Kings will turn to rookie Tyrese Haliburton to man the point. The 21-year-old has impressed in his debut season, averaging 12.8 points and 5.1 assists per game despite starting only 16 contests.
Haliburton logged 37 minutes in Fox's absence last night, scoring 24 points and dropping eight dimes. He also had seven assists in just 27 minutes when Fox missed another contest back in February. Take the Over 6.5 on Haliburton's assists total today.
PREDICTION: Tyrese Haliburton Assists Over 6.5 (-115)
Mavericks vs Kings betting card
- Dallas -6 (-110)
- Over 223.5 (-110)
- Tyrese Haliburton Assists Over 6.5 (-115)
Picks made on 4/26/2021 at 12:05 p.m. ET
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