The Denver Nuggets host the Dallas Mavericks tonight at Ball Arena but their superstar, Nikola Jokic, is questionable with a knee injury.
Denver is generally a conservative organization, so don’t be surprised if the reigning NBA MVP ends up sitting this one out. NBA betting odds currently have the Mavericks listed as 1.5-point road underdogs, but that could flip if Jokic is officially ruled out.
Keep reading our Mavericks vs. Nuggets NBA picks and predictions, for Friday, October 29, to figure out how to play this one.
Mavericks vs Nuggets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Mavericks are 1.5-point underdogs in this game at the moment, but that could change drastically as more news comes out about Jokic’s status. As for the total, it opened at 225.5 but has now plummeted to 219.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mavericks vs Nuggets predictions
Predictions made on 10/29/2021 at 1:39 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mavericks vs Nuggets game info
• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Friday, October 29, 2021
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV
Mavericks vs Nuggets betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: Boban Marjanovic C (Questionable), Sterling Brown G (Questionable).
Nuggets: Nikola Jokic C (Questionable), Jamal Murray G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nuggets are 0-4 against the spread in their last four home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Nuggets.
Mavericks vs Nuggets picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Mavericks opted to rest Kristaps Porzingis last night in the first half of a back-to-back and were still able to come away with a victory over San Antonio. It was an extremely bizarre game right from the jump, as the Mavericks were down 23-3 in the first quarter — and were actually up by as many as 11 points in the fourth quarter. Dallas then collapsed a bit, as the team was unable to cover the spread. Still, the Mavericks are going to be ecstatic to earn a victory in a game in which they were down by 20 and got to rest one of their stars.
Dallas now faces a Denver team that will likely be without Nikola Jokic, who suffered a knee contusion in the Nuggets’ last game and was unable to finish the contest. Jokic had a day to rest the injury but it’s unlikely that Denver will put him out there unless he’s completely ready to play. Even if they do, it’s probably safe to assume that he won’t be moving all that well — and Jokic isn’t much of a mover to begin with.
Without the reigning MVP, Denver really lacks scoring options in this game. The Nuggets are already waiting for Jamal Murray to recover from a torn ACL he suffered last season, and while Michael Porter Jr. is capable of going off in spurts, he has really struggled to start this season. Porter Jr. also happens to be a miserable defender, so he tends to give back most of what he gets on the other end.
No matter who ends up playing for the Nuggets, this also seems like a game in which Luka Doncic can go off for the Mavericks. Doncic has not been himself to start the season, but he averaged 31.3 points, 13.7 assists, and 8.3 rebounds per game in three meetings with Denver last year. Dallas is still working to figure out its offense under head coach Jason Kidd but the team is going to put the ball in Doncic’s hands at the end of the day. With that, don’t expect him to let the Mavericks lose this game to a depleted Nuggets team.
Being that such an important player’s status is up in the air in this game, the best thing to do is sit back and wait for the Jokic news. If he’s out, you should hop on Dallas and be comfortable with any number that doesn’t have the Mavericks laying more than four points. If Jokic is in the lineup, this is a good game to lay off of.
Prediction: Mavericks +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The last time the Mavericks and Nuggets faced one another, the two teams combined to score only 219 points. Now, both teams come into this game after having gone Under the total rather frequently early in the year.
So far this season, the Under is 3-0-1 in Dallas’ four games and it is 3-1 in Denver’s. The Nuggets’ one Over came last game, when Utah shot 51.8 percent from the field on its home floor. The Jazz, however, can be extremely difficult to stop when they get going from the outside, so that shouldn’t be held against the Nuggets.
Overall, these teams are both playing solid defense this season, sitting inside the Top 12 in defensive rating, and if Jokic doesn’t end up playing for Denver, it wouldn’t be that surprising if the Nuggets really slow things down and try to win a grind-it-out affair.
Prediction: Under 219.5 (-110)
Best bet
Even if Jokic ends up playing in this game, the Under would still be a really good play tonight. As mentioned above, both of these teams have been playing a lot of games that have gone below the total this season and they played a low-scoring game the last time they faced one another.
This season, both teams also happen to be playing at rather slow paces. Only four teams are playing slower than the Mavericks this year, and the Nuggets are just 18th in the NBA in pace. Both of these teams like to walk it up the court and play through their stars in the halfcourt, and that style of play ends up taking quite some time.
That limits the number of possessions in a game, which is part of the reason both teams generally don’t get as many points as most of the other teams in the league.
Pick: Under 219.5 (-110)
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