Nets vs Cavaliers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: No Mitchell, No Problem For Cleveland

The Cleveland Cavaliers’ defensive rating is 5.3 points worse in 16 games without Donovan Mitchell than in 47 games with him. And despite this, the home side is still favored tonight against the Brooklyn Nets, according to NBA odds.

Those defensive trends have come up most since the somehow underappreciated Mitchell has missed seven of 10 games since the All-Star break, a knee bone bruise jeopardizing Mitchell’s eligibility for All-NBA honors. But, there is one kind of team Cleveland has still defended decently, one with an outright bad offense.

The good news for the Cavs is the Nets are precisely that. That is enough reason to back Cleveland’s defense in my free NBA picks for the Nets vs Cavaliers on March 10.

Nets vs Cavaliers odds

Nets vs Cavaliers predictions

Fundamentally, little changed in the Cleveland Cavaliers defense without Mitchell and even without Evan Mobley in the last two games. The system is still the system, just being executed with lesser defenders.

Mitchell’s impact on the Cavaliers’ defense was a bit unexpected. For as good as he is, he isn't viewed as a top-tier defender. But a defensive-rating gap of more than five points is too distinct to ignore. Mitchell is a needed piece of the Cleveland defense, as is Mobley, more obviously.

But the Cavs have faced three bottom-third offenses since the All-Star break — using offensive ratings since Feb. 1, the 76ers (No. 21), the Wizards (No. 28), and the Pistons (No. 23) — and all three fell short of their team totals.

Add in the Timberwolves in regulation on Friday in their first game without Karl-Anthony Towns, and that is four struggling offenses since the All-Star break that the Cavs have held below their team totals.

And none of those were within five points of their team total, falling short of their expected marks in regulation by 7.9 points on average. The floor of Cleveland’s defensive design is high enough to stifle offenses that are already struggling, even without Mitchell and Mobley.

Enter the Brooklyn Nets.

They rank No. 27 in offensive rating since Feb. 1, a team that increasingly looks like it has given up on the season. That internal dissonance should be enough cause to believe in a team total Under even if it is right at the century mark. That low number is based on how bad Brooklyn has been of late, but give some credit to the Cavaliers’ floor and the Nets should not escape double digits tonight.

My best bet: Nets team total Under 100.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Nets vs Cavaliers same-game parlay

Nets team total Under 100.5

Cavs -7

Nic Claxton Under 12.5 points

+255 at BetRivers

This is a heavily correlated same-game parlay, which admittedly deflates the payout, but if doubting the Nets to score 100 points — FanDuel refuses to combine a spread with a team total in a same-game parlay, forcing us to use a slightly lower team total here — then the Cavs should be able to cover a spread of seven.

Brooklyn’s defense is wildly middling, No. 15 in rating both since Feb. 1 and since the All-Star break. But it has fallen off in the last week, allowing three of four opponents to clear their team totals, the exception coming last night at Charlotte by 1.5 points.

Those four opponents are all in the league’s lower third in offensive rating, while Cleveland is at No. 14 since the All-Star break. That offense should be enough to put up a decent showing against these frustrated Nets.

As for fading Nic Claxton, that is based on the Cavs’ giving up only 59.1% on field goals within five feet of the rim since Feb. 1. Claxton has nowhere else to live, but he should struggle to make buckets tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nets vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis

Cleveland opened as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday afternoon before peaking at -8 early on Sunday, resettling at -7 before anyone adjusted to Daylight Saving Time.

If there is a reason to doubt the Cavs’ ability to cover this spread, it's that they're 3-7 against the spread since the All-Star break, when Mitchell’s knee injury became an issue. To counter that, they are 3-2 ATS in their last five.

This total opened at 209 and fell to 207.5 or 207, depending on your sportsbook, assuredly a reflection of the Nets’ offensive struggles.

Nets vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

Brooklyn’s last four games have all gone Over its totals, despite the Nets going 2-2 against their team total. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Cavaliers.

Nets vs Cavaliers game info

Nets vs Cavaliers latest injuries

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