Nets vs Clippers Picks and Predictions: Clips Keep Durant at Bay

The Saturday, November 12 showdown between the Brooklyn Nets and the Los Angeles Clippers features a clash between two of the best small forwards to ever play the game in Kevin Durant and Paul George. Both teams came in with title-or-bust expectations, but injuries and dysfunction have threatened to kill those aspirations in the crib of this young season. 

The Nets have been a maelstrom of disorder this year, but with Kyrie Irving serving his suspension, the team has rallied around the play and leadership of Kevin Durant. Los Angeles continues to pray for the swift return of Kawhi Leonard, but Paul George has righted the ship in the meantime with his own outstanding play.

Nets vs. Clippers should feature some of the best one-on-one basketball of the season to date, and our NBA picks and predictions have the Clippers’ team defense getting the better of Durant on Saturday.

Nets vs Clippers best odds

Nets vs Clippers picks and predictions

There was a time not long ago when betting against Kevin Durant was something one simply did not do. But after a beatdown by the Boston Celtics in last year’s playoffs, it’s something that has begun to make situational sense. He’s still far too good to call a matchup-dependent player, but there are limitations to his game as well as stylistic changes that have come about since his Achilles injury.

Durant crushes teams from the in-between spaces. He’s one of the few players in the NBA where a midrange pull-up jumper is a bad result for the defense. But Durant has also become reliant on that spot of the court more and more post Achilles injury. He rarely gets all the way to the rim anymore (about 10th percentile among all forwards) and is not a high-volume 3-point shooter anymore either (about 15th percentile in frequency). 

Now, more than at any other point in his career, he lives to get middle and pull up. And in most matchups, that’s still pretty unstoppable.

But, as mentioned, not in all of them. Much like the Boston Celtics made Durant’s life hell in the playoffs last season, the Clippers are particularly well-constructed to make things hard on KD. They have a plethora of like-size wings who can switch, body him up and contest even in those midrange spots. Paul George, Marcus Morris, and Nic Batum can all credibly guard Durant, and being able to take turns over the course of 48 minutes is one of the reasons Boston was able to grind Durant down over time.

Durant also isn’t wired like Kobe Bryant. He’s one of the five or so most gifted individual scorers ever, yes, but he’s more than happy to move the ball if that’s the right play. In this recent five-game stretch where the Nets have seen renewed success, he’s been averaging fewer points (28.4) and more assists (7) per game as he sucks opposing defenders in and sprays out to Seth Curry or Joe Harris on the perimeter.

The Clippers will make it their mission to keep Durant from scoring on Saturday. Durant isn’t a stubborn player and is more likely to dish than grind it out against a Los Angeles team stocked with solid wing defenders.

My best bet: Kevin Durant Under 29.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Nets vs Clippers spread analysis

Though their circumstances couldn’t be more different, in some ways, the Clippers and the Nets have followed a similar trajectory to start the season. Though rattled after an offseason trade demand, the Brooklyn Nets came in with the requisite offensive talent to compete for a championship. The defense was so bad though that Steve Nash was fired and Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons have both (in their own, very different ways) not contributed enough to winning basketball. Oddly they’ve looked their best when the team has been Durant and a collection of role players.

In the four games that Irving has so far been serving his team-mandated suspension, Brooklyn has gone Nets are 3-0-1 against the spread. They beat the Charlotte Hornets, pounded the Washington Wizards, crushed the New York Knicks, and came within a hair's breadth of taking down Luka. 

Whether the team has something to prove with Steve Nash no longer running the show, or if removing Irving has just made basketball fun again, this Nets team built around a heliocentric Durant is a much more dangerous animal than the team they were just five games ago.

The Clippers have been up and down themselves. Ultimately nothing will matter if Kawhi Leonard doesn’t come back healthy this season — and right now, that seems far from a guarantee. They had a four-game losing streak early in the season and it looked like things might go off the rails quickly, until George reasserted himself that is. PG is up to 60% true shooting on the season and has been averaging just shy of 30 points per game over his last five. PG’s scoring turnaround has seen the Clippers go 4-1 ATS over that same span.

It’s fitting that Durant and George are the reigning NBA Players of the Week for the East and West, respectively, as it has been their individual play that was catalyzed the collective turnaround for both their teams.

These teams are both on the upswing and relatively evenly-matched. With the Nets getting as many as +2.5 from some books, I’d slightly lean towards them covering Saturday.

Nets vs Clippers Over/Under analysis

Even accounting for this recent stretch of improved play by Paul George and the Clippers, they’re still a shockingly bad overall offense. Indeed, if not for the Lakers’ marginally greater incompetence at that end, the Clippers’ struggles on that end would be a much larger story. The Clippers are the 29th-ranked offense in the league and several key contributors including John Wall, Norman Powell, Reggie Jackson, and Nic Batum have been disasters scoring the ball. 

While the Nets had previously been the “get right” team of choice for opposing offenses, they’ve stiffened their resolve in the last few games, in part contributing to the Under cashing in all six of their most recent contests. Durant clearly took pride in guarding Doncic one-on-one in their game against Dallas, and his example has infected the team with renewed vigor on that end.

The Clippers’ defense (and PG13’s heroics) has been what has saved their season to date. They’re the No. 3-ranked defense anchored by the play of Ivica Zubac and scrappy pressure from their wings. Both the Nets and Clippers like to switch, and that’s a good antidote to the isolation scoring prowess of players like Durant and George.

All in all, these teams have impressed much more on the defensive side of the ball recently than one might expect, and given their ability to credibly guard each other’s best players, I’d lean Under even at the low Total of 213.

Nets vs Clippers betting trend to know

Under is 6-0 in Nets’ last six overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Clippers.

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