The San Antonio Spurs are trying to work their way into the West’s Top 10. In the East, the Miami Heat are doing everything to try and keep from falling out of it.
Despite dropping three straight, the Heat are 3-point home favorites, and my Spurs vs. Heat predictions have the hosts stopping the bleeding.
Read more for my best NBA picks for Sunday, January 19.
Spurs vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Heat moneyline (-150 at bet365)
My analysis
The Miami Heat welcomed back Jimmy Butler from a team-imposed seven-game banishment, but it didn’t help, as the Heat were crushed at home by the Denver Nuggets 133-113.
The Heat can’t generate enough offense to keep up most nights, averaging just 110.8 points per game.
During this recent skid, dropping six of their last nine, the Heat are surrendering nearly 115 points per game, with teams shooting 46.7% from the field and 36% from downtown.
At 20-20, Miami sits in ninth in the East, three games clear of 10th place, so they do have some breathing room to find their way back to relevance.
They welcome a San Antonio Spurs team that’s also struggling, with just one win in its last six.
The Spurs got drilled in both ends of a 2-game set in Memphis, the latest a 140-112 bombing, that followed a 129-115 defeat.
San Antonio usually runs in the middle of the pack in points allowed, but over the course of this skid, that’s ballooned to a whopping 121.3 points per contest.
There’s little room for error out West. At 19-21, the Spurs are 1.5 games back of Golden State for that 10th and final play-in berth.
This should be a get-right game for Miami, as they’ve beaten the Spurs in three straight and in seven of the last eight, but the Butler cloud looms above all.
While that situation isn’t exactly galvanizing against a juggernaut like the Nuggets, Miami owns a 10-2 mark against teams below .500. That’s tied for the fewest losses in that category in the East.
The Spurs are putting up just 110.6 points across their last five losses, and Miami has kept them Under 113 points in eight of the last 10 meetings.
That should be enough to help them grind out a win and kick that Butler story down the street for a couple of days.
Spurs vs Heat same-game parlay
Heat moneyline
Tyler Herro Under 3.5 threes
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds
Butler’s insertion in the lineup did throw a wrench into what had become a heat constant: Tyler Herro raining triples.
Herro finished just 2-for-7 from distance, the first time in his last six games he’d failed to knock down at least four from beyond the arc.
It also matches his fewest attempts in 10 January games, with Herro attempting 10 or more triples five times.
As Miami works to reintegrate Butler and San Antonio ranking 10th in 3-point field goal shooting defense, there’s a good chance Herro falls Under the number Sunday.
We’ll finish with Victor Wembanyama, who has pulled down 12 or more rebounds in five of seven January games.
He had a dozen each in both losses to the Grizzlies. Miami isn’t one of the best rebounding teams in the league, ranking 21st, so there will be ample opportunity for the big man to pound the glass.
In two meetings vs Miami last year, Wemby had 13 rebounds on February 7, and 11 boards on November 12. He should be around his 11.5 rebound total again against the Heat.
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Spurs vs Heat odds
Spurs vs Heat live odds
Spurs vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: San Antonio +2.5 | Miami -2.5
- Moneyline: San Antonio +126 | Miami -143
- Over/Under: Over 219 | Under 219
Odds courtesy of bet365
Spurs vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- Miami is 3-0-0 against the spread in its last three vs the Spurs.
- San Antonio has been the betting underdog in nine of the last 10 vs the Heat.
- The Spurs have hit the Over in three straight games.
- The Heat have seen the Under cash in four of its last six contests.
Spurs vs Heat trend
Miami has gone Over the total in four straight home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Heat.
How to watch Spurs vs Heat
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-19-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN |
Spurs vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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