The two leading MVP candidates face off tonight, and try as we might, it will be hard to frame this game as anything but Nikola Jokic vs. Joel Embiid. Of course, that narrative is helped by knowing they will defend each other for most of the contest.
It would take quite the dominant showing from Jokic to catch Embiid in most MVP voters’ eyes, but if anyone can put together something that notable, it is the Serbian.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Nuggets at the 76ers on March 14, with tip set for 7:30 ET.
Nuggets vs 76ers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The 76ers hit the boards as 6-point favorites Sunday afternoon, but that began ticking downward by dinner time. As Philadelphia tipped off in Orlando, the line fell all the way to -2.5 by the end of the night. A brief part of late Monday morning saw this drop to -1.5 before returning to -2.5.
The total moved much less, opening at 222 on Sunday afternoon and only rising to 224 this afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Nuggets vs 76ers predictions
Predictions made on 3/14/2022 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Nuggets vs 76ers game info
• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Monday, March 14, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN/TSN4
Nuggets vs 76ers betting preview
Key injuries
Nuggets: Aaron Gordon PF (Questionable), Zeke Nnaji PF (Questionable), Michael Porter Jr. PF (Out), Jamal Murray SG (Out).
76ers: Danny Green G (Probable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nuggets have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs, but none of those have come recently. Denver was favored in 10 straight games before tonight. The four ATS wins as a ‘dog came in early to mid-February. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. 76ers.
Nuggets vs 76ers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Perhaps long-term expectations of the Nuggets have been misplaced for some time now, or they simply keep exceeding them. This season was supposed to be a worrisome one with Jamal Murray sidelined for at least most of it and Michael Porter Jr.’s back remaining a problem.
Yet, Jokic has his squad in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race, and his presence alone seems to be enough to keep Denver from getting embarrassed often.
The Nuggets have gone 10-3 since early February, but only three of those wins came against teams currently in the Top 8 of their conference. Therein lies the rub. Denver has gone 4-5 against teams in the Top 8 of either conference since Feb. 1. Its current two-game losing streak came against two such teams, and it was favored in both games.
Beating the dredges of the NBA is a necessary skill for any worthwhile team, but it is not one that will help Denver tonight.
The 76ers’ honeymoon period has ended since trading for James Harden, and Philadelphia is on the latter half of a back-to-back, but its sheer depth should prove too much for the Nuggets. Since trading for Harden, five Sixers are averaging double digits.
That amount of weapons should flummox a defense that comes in at No. 13 in defensive rating since January 1.
Prediction: 76ers -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Not only are the 76ers playing for the second night in a row, but they needed a comeback to force overtime to beat lowly Orlando yesterday. Their legs may be a bit weary, and in the NBA, tired legs usually show up on defense first, particularly when two of those tired legs belong to James Harden. He played 44 minutes on Sunday, using a bevy of free throws to score 26 points despite going 5-of-19 from the field.
In that respect, a tired Harden still and always scores, finding his way to the free-throw line. Embiid went 15-of-17 from the charity stripe, as well. They are two of the top three in free throw attempts per game in the NBA.
If that isn’t enough incentive to believe in the Over tonight, then also note that the Over has gone 83-64 combined this season among tonight’s referee crew. On an occasion when free throws will be needed to start with, that likelihood increases with this crew.
Prediction: Over 223.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Nuggets win more often than not, which is why Jokic’s MVP candidacy continues as strongly as it does. But when they lose, they lose big. Their three losses in their last seven games have come by an average of 11.7 points per game, and none of those teams were as good as the current 76ers are.
Capitalizing on that trend means shopping for some alternative lines and then, it comes down to how greedy you want to be.
Finding the 76ers at -6 (+148) holds value, as does -9 (+256). Of course, one of those is more likely to cash than the other, but both fall within the usual margin of defeat for Denver of late.
Jokic might be the best one-man show in the NBA right now, but Embiid relishes chances to measure himself against the best, and he has help on his side. That should all be too much to cover big against the Nuggets.
Pick: 76ers -6 (+148)
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