The Memphis Grizzlies may be on a bit of a slide, but returning home should be what cures them. Meanwhile, Denver is still without Aaron Gordon and that could affect them tonight on the road.
Let’s break down how this one should go in our free NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Grizzlies on February 25.
Nuggets vs Grizzlies best odds
Nuggets vs Grizzlies picks and predictions
On the surface, it doesn’t really look like the Memphis Grizzlies deserve to be favored in any game, let alone one against one of the best teams in the Western Conference.
That said, the recent losses the Grizzlies have accrued aren’t all that concerning. Memphis is a ridiculous 23-4 straight up at home and had to play the majority of its last 14 games (of which it won just four) away from FedExForum.
At the Grindhouse this season, Memphis is +10.4 per 100 possessions and has played incredible defense. While it hasn’t been quite the same team on the glass with Steven Adams injured, the Denver Nuggets have been a bit off their game over the last five despite some good results with middling metrics on both ends of the floor.
Memphis is the deserving favorite here considering its ability to dominate at home, particularly on the defensive end. It should have plenty of firepower to shut down the Nuggets' offense which is going to be seriously missing the presence of Aaron Gordon.
With Gordon off the floor this season, Denver is nearly 20 points worse per 100 possessions.
My best bet: Grizzlies -2 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Nuggets vs Grizzlies spread analysis
The Grizzlies are 17-11-1 against the spread at home this season and the Nuggets are 13-16 ATS on the road. Both of these teams have been elite on their own floor but have really struggled away from it.
While the Nuggets are coming into this matchup with eight wins in their last 10 games, I’m pretty bearish on them since Denver is being out-scored by 3.5 points per 100 possessions on the road and will be without Gordon.
The Nuggets' offensive rating without Gordon this season is 108.7, which is 16 points worse per 100 than Denver’s performance with him on the court. Against one of the strongest defenses in the league, that's going to be a huge problem.
The Grizzlies actually opened as 1.5-point underdogs in this game before subsequent action drove them to become favorites. DraftKings is currently reporting just 45% of spread tickets are backing Memphis.
Nuggets vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis
The total is something of a hot wager as well. It opened at 234 points before being bet up to as high as 235.5 at some shops.
You’ve got an offense in the Grizzlies which is already rather lackluster and a Nuggets offense that, while high-powered, can’t be expected to perform anywhere near what we’ve come accustomed to with Gordon sidelined.
On top of that, this Grizzlies' defense is impenetrable at home with a 106.2 efficiency rating. Memphis ranks sixth in pace this season, but Denver is all the way down at 20th.
Nuggets vs Grizzlies betting trend to know
The Over is 8-3 in Denver's last 11 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Grizzlies.
Nuggets vs Grizzlies game info
| Location: | FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, February 25, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast - Memphis, Altitude 2 |
