Nuggets vs Jazz Picks and Predictions: Denver's Bench Chemistry Gives It the Advantage

We’ve arrived at the penultimate day of the regular season, and the first game on the schedule is a Western Conference matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz.

The Nuggets have nothing to play for in the standings and as such will likely be rolling out a mostly bench unit, while the Jazz have already been eliminated. While the heavy hitters for these teams aren’t going to play this afternoon, there's a reason there are still NBA odds for this game: It still has stakes.

Utah is packed full of players still fighting for their place in the league, and every rotation minute counts. The Nuggets bench players, meanwhile, are each striving to earn the confidence of Michael Malone before he sets his playoff rotation.

So who has the edge between the Denver bench and Utah's guys out to prove a point? My free NBA picks for Nuggets vs. Jazz are leaning with the favorites — read on to see why.

Nuggets vs Jazz best odds

Nuggets vs Jazz picks and predictions

Neither the Denver Nuggets nor the Utah Jazz have much of anything to play for, so this will be a battle between a team that is actively tanking (Utah) and a team that’s just not overly invested in winning (Denver).

They may not here care about winning, but there are degrees of not trying. Denver has listed its principal stars (Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon) as questionable and I would be surprised if any of them play today. However, just as they did against Phoenix on Thursday, in an equally meaningless game, I expect the Nuggets to play their legitimate bench players for major minutes.

Given Denver’s bench struggles this season, that might not sound overly impressive, but the Nuggets' reserves showed that they were a capable team when allowed to find rhythm in bigger roles. Christian Braun has proven to be a solid rookie on both ends, Reggie Jackson is a veteran ballhandler and shooter, Bruce Brown is a crafty defender and passer, and Peyton Watson has flashed some intriguing upside over this recent stretch.

All of them will be looking to prove themselves worthy of serious playoff burn, and showing out against the Jazz skeleton crew is their best path to get there.

Skeleton crew might even be generous, as the NBA injury report makes Utah’s intentions for Saturday crystal clear: It has zero intention of winning this game... or even competing. Its seven best players — Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Kelly Olynyk, Rudy Gay, Talen Horton-Tucker, Collin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson — have all been ruled out for Saturday’s action.

Some of the leftovers that will play against Denver will be seeing their first major minutes all season, and they’ll likely be in new roles and/or lineup combinations they have never played a meaningful second together before.

Not only that, the organizational imperative to lose might bleed into the game itself. As we saw just law night with the Dallas Mavericks, while players don’t tank... sometimes coaches do.

Denver’s bench players have something real to play for and have found success at times playing together. I’m expecting them to prove their worth in a convincing win against a Utah team that has half a foot in Cancun already.

My best bet: Nuggets -6.5 (-110)

Nuggets vs Jazz spread analysis

It’s foolhardy to overly rely on recent trends when a game like this features so few of the regular cast in major roles. Instead, context and theory of the team must take precedence. The Nuggets have just recently proven that even devoid of Jokic, MPJ, and Murray they have a functional rotation of capable players who fit together fairly well, resulting in a passable collection of shooting, playmaking, and defensive talent.

The Jazz, on the other hand, are not going to be sending out a real team. Per Cleaning the Glass, only one of the players expected to suit up for Utah today has a usage rate above 15% on the season. That's Kris Dunn, who has done a nice job resurrecting his career as an on-ball defensive bulldog this season... but any team relying on him to be a primary offensive engine is not serious.

The remaining Jazz players are guys who aren’t trusted to even be cogs in the system on offense when they’re out there normally. To expect them to perform to any degree when thrust into a much bigger role — against a group of players who have played together much of the season — is simply asking too much.

Nuggets vs Jazz Over/Under analysis

Again, it’s difficult to analyze how a Utah team made entirely of misfit toys is going to play on either end today. I’m certainly skeptical that they can scrape together an above-average offense, but I’m nearly as wary that they’ll be able to stop anyone with so little time together as well.

The Nuggets players at least have some track record worth evaluating. That record overall is not pretty, but it’s particularly porous on the defensive end. DeAndre Jordan has had some admirable moments for Denver this season, but he struggles to defend against drivers with even a modicum of athleticism, while Thomas Bryant might get some burn against the Jazz, and as good as he is as a scorer... he gives it all back on the other end.

Overall, I have more faith in the offense of the Nuggets' bench personnel than I do in their defense, even with standouts like Braun and Brown on the wing. But still, there are just too many question marks about this one for me to consider betting it.

Nuggets vs Jazz betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Jazz.

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Nuggets vs Jazz key injuries

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