Nuggets vs Lakers Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Series Shift Swings Scoring

The Western Conference Finals shifts to California for Game 3 with the Los Angeles Lakers looking to avoid an almost insurmountable 0-3 deficit against the Denver Nuggets.

Jamal Murray was the hero in Game 2, leading the Nuggets to a comeback victory and giving them a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series.

Oddsmakers expect LeBron & Co. to bounce back on their home floor, with NBA betting lines opening with the Lakers as 5.5-point favorites. But it's the total I'm targeting with my best free Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, May 20. 

For more in-depth analysis, check out our prop picks for Nuggets vs Lakers Game 3.

Nuggets vs Lakers Game 3 best odds

Nuggets vs Lakers Game 3 picks and predictions

These teams combined for 258 points in Game 1 before mustering just 211 points in Game 2 on Thursday. Both squads continued to play at a fast tempo in that game but shot far worse than they usually do with each team having a field goal percentage of just 44%. 

I'm expecting both teams to have bounce-back games on offense thanks to the elite playmakers they possess. The Lakers are led by LeBron James (28.9 points and 6.8 assists per game during the regular season) and Anthony Davis (25.9 ppg, 56.3 FG%) while Austin Reaves is averaging 20.8 ppg over the last five contests.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets are anchored by triple-double machine Nikola Jokic while Jamal Murray has been filling up the hoop with 27.2 ppg during the playoffs. They also have plenty of scoring depth with shooters like Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope surrounding Jokic. 

While the Nuggets play far better at home than on the road, their biggest discrepancy has been on the defensive end of the floor. During the regular season and playoffs they're shooting a sizzling 50.8% from the floor at home but their 49.6 FG% in away contests is also impressive.

However, while they're ninth in the league in opponent field goal percentage (46.1%) at home, they sit 27th in opponent field goal percentage on the road (49.5%). The Nuggets might play even more fast and loose on defense tonight since they're playing with a two-game cushion.

The Nuggets had defensive success against the Suns as they used Jokic to hedge on the pick-and-roll and forced Phoenix into tough spots on the floor. However, the Lakers thrive in transition and when attacking the rim, which are both areas where Denver ranks in the Bottom 10 of the league in defensive efficiency per ShotQualityBets.

Although the Lakers have Davis protecting the paint, they have a tough time defending against teams that space the floor and can stretch them with 3-point shooting.

My best bet: Over 222.5 (-110)

Nuggets vs Lakers Game 3 same-game parlay

Over 222.5 points

Anthony Davis Over 24.5 points

Austin Reaves Over 16.5 points

Rui Hachimura Under 3.5 rebounds

+1074 at FanDuel

Davis went 14-23 from the field for 40 points in the opening game of this series. He had just 18 points on Thursday, but he isn't going to shoot 4-15 again, especially against a Denver team that has allowed a 56.2 EFG% away from home.

That should also mean a strong offensive game from Reaves, who has dropped more than 20 points in three consecutive games

Despite logging 58 minutes over the last two games, Hachimura grabbed a total of just two rebounds. That makes it six consecutive games the 6-foot-8 forward has gone below this number. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nuggets vs Lakers Game 3 spread and Over/Under analysis

With the Nuggets installed as 7.5-point faves at home in Game 1 and now catching 5.5 points on the road, the 13-point swing might seem extreme at first glance. However, when you add in Denver's extreme home/away splits to the Lakers' increased motivation in this spot, it's easy to see why the spread is so high.

The Nuggets enjoy the most distinct home-court advantage in the NBA with games taking place at high elevation. During the regular season and playoffs, they have an average scoring margin of plus-10.1 ppg at home, but that number plummets to minus-2.4 ppg on the road. 

Meanwhile, the Lakers are a perfect 6-0 SU at home in the playoffs with an incredible average scoring margin of plus-18.3 ppg.

In addition, the Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams in L.A. and both games at Crypto.com Arena earlier this season resulted in double-digit victories for the Lakers (with both teams at full strength for those contests).

Historically, one of the best bets in basketball was playing the first half spread on a team at home down 0-2 in a seven-game series. Oddsmakers have adjusted to that over the last few years, and the first-half spread is currently set at Lakers -4.5 with the first-quarter number at -3. 

Although the spread has seen a massive swing from Game 1 to Game 3, we're seeing a total of 222.5, which is identical to the number in the opening game that the Nuggets won 132-126.

Nuggets vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1-1 in Denver's last seven road games while going 15-7 in L.A.'s previous 22 contests overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers.

Nuggets vs Lakers Game 3 game info

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