Nuggets vs Suns Picks and Predictions: Ayton Dominates Down Low

The Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns are parked in the No. 1 and No. 4 spots in the Western Conference, respectively, regardless of the outcome of tonight’s tilt in Arizona.

While their postseason positions are written in pen, there could be plenty to play for from both sides Thursday.

Denver is the top seed in the conference but may not want to back into the playoffs in poor form, having lost three of its last four, including a 100-93 defeat to the Suns last Friday. The Nuggets, however, are expected to rest Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and a number of starters, which has sent this spread soaring in favor of the Suns.

Phoenix is on a roll with six straight wins (5-1 ATS) and is undefeated with Kevin Durant in action but still needs to work out the kinks of its rotation and continue to cook up chemistry for this new-look lineup.

I take a look at the spread and total for this Thursday night outing and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets at Suns on April 6.

Nuggets vs Suns best odds

Nuggets vs Suns picks and predictions

With this spread jumping from as low as Suns -4.5 to as high as -10, the market is telling us that Denver won’t have the services of center Nikola Jokic tonight as well as frontcourt staples Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., or backup big man Zeke Nnaji.

That leaves the Denver Nuggets coming up short against Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton, who is beginning to get back into form after missing time with a hip injury in March. Ayton has put up twin 19-point, 11-rebound performances in his last two games and faces a short point total tonight at home.

Books have his scoring prop at 14.5 points (Over -125), while plenty of player projections have him flirting with as many as 19 points again tonight. Even a conservative estimate has Ayton scoring more than 17 points against the Nuggets’ thin frontcourt.

Ayton had only eight points on 4-for-11 shooting against Denver last Friday, playing just 28 minutes and picking up five fouls. However, in the past two games, the Arizona product has shot a collective 14-for-21 and made 10 of 11 free throws.

Given the meaningless game and the fact the Nuggets are potentially sitting all their starters, with the spread spiking to double digits, the Suns could jump out to an early lead and cruise. That could dip into Ayton’s minutes in the second half, but this point prop is too low not to bite on Phoenix’s big man to put up 15 or more tonight.

My best bet: Deandre Ayton Over 14.5 points (-125)

Nuggets vs Suns spread analysis

Some books opened this game Wednesday afternoon with Phoenix giving 4.5 points to the visiting Nuggets, but with Jokic nursing a sore calf, Jamal Murray questionable with a sprained thumb, and a slew of other starters showing up on the injury report, the Suns surged to as high as -10 as of 12 noon ET.

Denver is locked into the No. 1 spot with three games remaining, so there’s no urgency to force those key players into action. Jokic did return from a three-game absence to play Houston on Tuesday and while he was limited to less than 15 minutes of floor time, he still finished with 14 points and 10 rebounds. Murray, who was also dealing with a sore knee, sprained his thumb in that loss to the Rockets.

Phoenix is putting the fear of God into Western rivals with its winning ways since returning Kevin Durant to the lineup. After acquiring Durant in a deal with Brooklyn, the Suns had only three games with him in action before he suffered a freak ankle sprain in warmup on March 5 that cost him 10 games.

However, in the four games with Durant back, Phoenix has a net rating of +11.7, including covering as 19-point favorites against San Antonio on Tuesday – tied for the biggest spread of the NBA season.

These teams clashed on March 31, with the Suns winning 100-93 but failing to cover as 13-point home chalk. Both Murray and Jokic sat out that contest as well as Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, so we have a gauge of how high tonight’s spread could go if those Denver standouts are indeed out.

The Suns are 7-2 SU inside the Footprint Center since the All-Star break but have gone just 4-4-1 ATS in those contests. The Nuggets are 18-21 ATS as a road team this season.

Nuggets vs Suns Over/Under analysis

This total opened as low as 223.5 points at some shops on Wednesday and is somewhat scattered as of Thursday morning, with the number as low as 223 and as high as 226 points. However, when the spread jumped from Suns -7.5 to -10, the total ticked down to 223 across the board with the Nuggets stars expected to sit.

Denver has been a hot Under play the past three weeks, staying below the total in 10 straight outings. That includes these teams going Under the closing total of 223 points in last Friday’s matchup in Phoenix.

The Nuggets’ offensive efforts have been spotty in that span, but the defense continues to anchor those outings with the team allowing an average of just 108 points against in that 10-game run.

Taking Jokic and Murray out of the lineup is a big knock on the Nuggets’ offensive efficiency, as the team truly struggles without the two-time MVP in the middle of the floor. Murray is also a major facilitator with more than 19 points and seven assists per game since the All-Star break. The statuses of Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are also in question tonight.

The Suns don’t lack scoring pop with KD in the mix but have shown defensive chops during this current winning run. Phoenix has allowed only 102.2 points against over those six games while limiting foes to less than 42% success from the field, which has led to a 2-4 Over/Under count.

Phoenix has played a more plodding pace on offense in that span as well, owning a pace rating of 97.17. The offense isn’t blowing away opponents, with an average of 115.3 points in that stretch. The Suns shot just 42% from the floor in Friday’s game with the Nuggets, including 10-for-37 from beyond the arc and 16 total turnovers.

Nuggets vs Suns betting trend to know

Denver has played Under the total in 10 straight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Suns.

Nuggets vs Suns game info

Nuggets vs Suns key injuries

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