The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder met on Sunday and played to within two points through three quarters. OKC blitzed Denver in the final frame 40-21 to deliver a big win for the home team, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Western Conference titans and MVP favorites are back in action tonight, and my Nuggets vs Thunder predictions and NBA picks expect another strong showing from SGA.
Nuggets vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 40 points in yesterday’s big win over the Denver Nuggets, and he’s been best known for his elite scoring this season. SGA doesn’t get much credit as a facilitator, but I’m happy to back him in that area as he continues to excel.
For the second straight season, SGA is averaging 6.2 assists, and he’s dished 7+ dimes in 28 of 62 games, He’s reached this milestone in less than half of his games overall, but he’s done so seven times across his last 10, including six of eight since the All-Star break.
Who needs a day off, right? SGA has played 12 back-to-backs this season and averaged 7.3 dimes on the second leg of those sets. In those 12 games, he’s handed out seven assists 10 times. He's logged 7+ assists in two of three against the Nuggets this season, and he’s reached that mark in five of his last 10 against Denver while averaging 6.3 dimes.
The Nuggets are tied for the most assists allowed to opponents this season at 29.1. This is a favorable matchup for any position, but Denver has been particularly generous to opposing floor generals. This season, the Nuggets have allowed the fourth-most assists to point guard (9.7).
Though SGA is a prolific scorer, he’s an underrated passer who should have no problem exploiting a favorable matchup. He’ll surely be motivated against fellow MVP contender Nikola Jokic, and in what should be a high-scoring matchup, there will be plenty of opportunities to rack up dimes.
Nuggets vs Thunder same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists
Nikola Jokic 13+ rebounds
Over 239
The Joker is pulling down 12.9 boards per game this season, and he’s grabbed 13+ in 34 of 58. He’s cashed this prop in 58.6% of his games, and the NBA odds are unsurprisingly set at a reasonable -180. Jokic has pulled down 13, 20, and 12 rebounds in three matchups with the Thunder this season.
The Thunder have gone Over 239 in six of their last nine, and the Nuggets have gone Over in four of the previous nine. The Nuggets average the third-most points per game (121.2) and the Thunder average the fourth-most (119.6). Despite hitting the Under yesterday, the teams combined for 246 points in the previous matchup.
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Nuggets vs Thunder odds
Nuggets vs Thunder live odds
Nuggets vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Denver +9 | Oklahoma City -9
- Moneyline: Denver +290 | Oklahoma City -370
- Over/Under: Over 239 | Under 239
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Nuggets vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Denver is 3-4 ATS against Oklahoma City over the last two seasons.
- The Thunder are 5-2 SU against the Nuggets the last two seasons.
Nuggets vs Thunder trend
The Thunder have cashed the moneyline in 71 of their last 92 games (+20.30 units / 4% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Thunder.
How to watch Nuggets vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Monday, 3-10-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ALT/KTVD, FDSN - Oklahoma |
Nuggets vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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