Nuggets vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Seeing Value in the MVP

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets have won four of their last five games and will now look to keep up the good work with a road win over the Golden State Warriors. Steve Kerr’s team has lost three of its last four contests coming into this one, so perhaps the Warriors are vulnerable to a home upset tonight. 

Will Denver find a way to beat Golden State at the Chase Center for the second time this year? Keep reading our Nuggets vs. Warriors NBA picks and predictions for February 16 to find out. 

Nuggets vs Warriors odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Warriors opened as 6-point favorites in this meeting with the Nuggets and are now laying only 5.5 or 5 points across all books. The total, which opened at 224, is now at either 224 or 224.5 at this point. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Nuggets vs Warriors predictions

• Prediction: Nuggets +5.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 224.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Nuggets +5.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/16/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Nuggets vs Warriors game info

• Location: Chase Center, San Franciso, CA
• Date: Wednesday, February 16, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCSBA, ALT

Nuggets vs Warriors betting preview

Key injuries

Nuggets: Monte Morris G (Out), Zeke Nnaji C (Questionable), Jamal Murray G (Out), Michael Porter Jr. F (Out).
Warriors: Andre Iguodala F (Questionable), Draymond Green F (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as road underdogs.  Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Warriors.

Nuggets vs Warriors picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Warriors have slipped to 12th in the league in offensive rating this season, which is a bit surprising when you consider that this was one of the best offensive teams in the league to start the year.

Golden State might be excellent on the defensive end, but the team isn’t quite as good there without Green on the floor. He’s one of the best defenders in the history of the game, and he anchors that unit with his elite help defense and constant communication. With the way the Warriors are playing right now, not all that much separates them from the Nuggets. 

Denver is third in the league in offensive rating over the last 15 games, with most of that having to do with how unstoppable Jokic is on that end of the floor. He should be able to dominate this game against a Golden State team that could use a guy like Wiseman in this one.

Wiseman isn’t a special defender or anything, but he has a massive body and could have given Golden State some worthwhile minutes against Jokic. Kevon Looney is a good defender at the center position, but he might not be quite big enough to body up last year’s MVP. Jokic alone is one of the reasons Denver has a real chance at pulling out an upset here. 

The Nuggets also happen to be 16th in the league in defensive rating in the same 15-game stretch, which is good enough when the offense is rolling the way it is. The team just needs to be disciplined when defending Steph Curry and Klay Thompson off the ball.

The only thing that can prevent Denver from competing in this game would be for the team to lose those two shooters too often. The Nuggets should be able to neutralize Andrew Wiggins, as Aaron Gordon is plenty capable of handling that assignment. 

Overall, this just has the looks of a game that is going to come down to the final possessions. Jokic is too good to let this game completely get away, and he’s also fully capable of leading Denver to another upset win over Golden State. 

Prediction: Nuggets +5.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Under has hit in each of the last five meetings between these teams, and it’s also 7-1 in the last eight games these two have played against one another. And despite the fact that the Nuggets’ offense has been crazy efficient as of late, the Under has still hit in two of their last three games and is 4-2-1 in their last seven. That’s just part of playing through a big man like Jokic, as Denver takes its time in the half court and allows him to be patient. 

The Under also happens to be 9-0 when Golden State is coming off an upset loss as a road favorite since the start of last season, and those games have an average total points scored of 209.6 points per game. The Under is also 17-7 when the Warriors are favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points this year. 

Prediction: Under 224.5 (-110) 

Best bet

The Warriors are eventually going to find their rhythm, but this team is really missing Green right now. Against a team that runs its offense through Jokic, his absence is going to be felt even more than usual. Jokic is likely going to pick the Warriors apart in this game, even without a great supporting cast. 

Golden State hasn’t covered in its last six contests and Denver actually won by three as a 7.5-point road underdog when these teams met at the Chase Center back on December 28. It should also be noted that the Nuggets are 6-1-1 against the spread in road games with totals between 220 and 229.5 this season. Denver is 6-2 straight-up in those eight games, meaning that the style of play that the oddsmakers expect in this one favors Mike Malone’s team. 

Pick: Nuggets +5.5 (-110) 

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