When the NBA odds to win the In-Season Tournament initially opened, the Indiana Pacers were trading at +3,800 to hoist the NBA Cup. Now, with only four teams left and the tournament being held in Las Vegas, the Pacers are +425 to win outright.
It won't be an easy task for the Pacers as they face the tournament favorites on Thursday. And while the Bucks are favored, the Pacers did defeat them back on November 9. However, Cameron Payne was the starting point guard for the Bucks in that matchup; it's a slightly different challenge with Vegas on Dame Time.
Although I don't have a bet on the game's winner, I do have a strong opinion on an NBA player prop for the Pacers. Find out why I'm backing Haliburton to drop some dimes in our free NBA picks for Thursday, December 7.
For more coverage, consult our spotlight on Giannis Antetokounmpo odds and our Pacers vs. Bucks props.
Pacers vs Bucks odds
Pacers vs Bucks predictions
On Monday, I played the role of the fun police with the Indiana Pacers' NBA In-Season Tournament game, subjecting everyone to a Tyrese Haliburton Under on his points prop. It might have been the least enjoyable bet to root for this season, though it did result in a green checkmark.
On Thursday, we get to flip the script and place an Over bet on the best passer in the sport. As painful as Monday's Under bet on Haliburton was, this will be the complete opposite.
It's a big number, with the total sitting at 11.5, and the fact that he only had 10 assists against the Bucks in his last outing might be cause for concern. However, I'm here to tell you why neither of those factors should worry you.
The Milwaukee Bucks' defense is notably weak at the point of attack; this isn't a secret. Their strength lies in their interior defense with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez.
What this means for Haliburton is he'll be able to get to any spot he wants on the court. However, once he collapses the defense and finds himself in the lane against Antetokounmpo and Lopez, he'll likely be looking to find his shooters or cutters.
In the Pacers' previous game against the Bucks, Haliburton only had 10 assists, which might not look great on the surface when considering our need for Over 11.5 to win our bet. However, Haliburton had 26 potential assists. Yes, 26! Haliburton averages 19.6 potential assists per game this season.
Haliburton is projected to have 12.8 assists on Thursday, which means we can price the Over 11.5 assists at -152. With that projection and this -125 price at theScore Bet, you're receiving a positive expected value of 8%.
Tyrese Haliburton bet: Over 11.5 assists (-125 at theScore Bet)
Pacers vs Bucks same-game parlay
Tyrese Haliburton Over 11.5 assists
Buddy Hield Over 2.5 made threes
Myles Turner Over 1.5 made threes
Haliburton Over 11.5 assists is our main bet on Thursday, but how is he going to get there?
We'll need the Pacers' shooters to make their 3-pointers, and more specifically, Buddy Hield. If Haliburton is going to be collapsing the lane at will and kicking out, Hield is going to see a ton of shot attempts from beyond the arc.
Hield isn't the only shooter we'll be relying on for Haliburton's assists prop. While Myles Turner isn't the first name that comes to mind, there are several reasons why I think he will see increased minutes and shot attempts from beyond the arc on Thursday.
The Bucks' strength is their frontcourt and the Pacers don't have much size. The Pacers will be heavily dependent on Turner to help them win the glass, which is why he should see extended minutes. In addition to the Pacers needing Turner for defense and rebounding, they should also be looking to utilize his shooting to space the floor and pull the Bucks' bigs out of the lane.
I'm sure there will also be an emphasis from the Pacers' coaching staff for Turner to shoot early and often because even the threat of him shooting will help provide their offense with space to operate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pacers vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
The Bucks opened as a 4.5-point favorite at FanDuel, and we're seeing that number hold steady in the market. While Bucks -4.5 is a consensus number across the sportsbooks, we're seeing some varying juice on both sides of the spread.
The total opened at 254.5 at DraftKings and has since been bet up to 255.5. This total is roughly 25 points higher than the total in the second semifinal matchup between the Pelicans and Lakers. Welcome to a game featuring the Pacers; it should be a ton of fun.
Pacers vs Bucks betting trend to know
The Pacers have cashed their team total Over in 31 of their last 42 games (+18.15 units / 38% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Bucks.
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Pacers vs Bucks game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Thursday, December 7, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Pacers vs Bucks latest injuries
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