The Indiana Pacers have jumped out to a 2-0 lead in their Eastern Conference playoff series against the Milwaukee Bucks heading into Friday’s Game 3.
With the series moving to Milwaukee, the Bucks are favored to claw back a win tonight, but I’m more interested in following the Pacers vs. Bucks props trends in tonight’s contest.
My NBA picks look at three players we can bank on this April 25.
Best Pacers vs Bucks props
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Antetokounmpo o32.5 pts (-115) -
Nembhard o10.5 pts (-120) - Kuzma u1.5 made 3s (-165)
Pacers vs Bucks player props for April 25
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 32.5 points (-115 at bet365)
If there’s any way for the Milwaukee Bucks to get back into this series, it’s going to come behind the genius of Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Greek Freak has averaged 35 ppg so far in this series, and has historically been an absolutely beast in the playoffs, averaging over 30 ppg in both the 2021 and 2022 NBA postseasons.
On some rosters, we might assume that a team would turn away from such a one-dimensional offense in an effort to turn its luck around after going down 2-0 in a series. But the truth of the matter is that the Bucks need Giannis to play at his best to beat the Pacers, and that’s going to mean continued heavy usage for their superstar.
Antetokounmpo has taken a total of 43 shots in the first two games of this series, and I expect him to get 20+ attempts again in Game 3 at home. There is no way Milwaukee can come back in this series if it falls into a 3-0 hole, and that means leaning heavily on its unstoppable scoring weapon to win tonight.
I love Giannis to hit the Over even at an incredibly high scoring total of 32.5 points, as the Bucks will be feeding Antetokounmpo the ball as much as necessary to get a win for their home fans and keep the series interesting for at least one more game.
Andrew Nembhard Over 10.5 points (-120 at bet365)
You might not expect this after he averaged just 10.0 ppg during the regular season, but Andrew Nembhard is currently the third-leading scorer for the Indiana Pacers in this series. Nembhard has gone for 17 points in each of the first two games, efficiently scoring the ball even though he took only 13 shots in Game 1 and 10 in Game 2.
Nembhard was never a consistent scorer during the regular season. But he predictably tended to get more points when he was use more aggressively in the rotation, scoring 11+ points in four of his last 10 regular season games after playing 27+ minutes in each of his appearances. Nembhard has played 31.5 minutes per game in the Indiana rotation in the playoffs, which has naturally led to him getting more scoring opportunities.
Nembhard is no stranger to outstanding playoff performance, having averaged 14.9 ppg in the 2024 playoffs. The former Gonzaga standout has been a perimeter weapon, but has also been able to attack the rim in this series, even taking on Brook Lopez head-to-head and scoring. I expect more of the same from Nembhard tonight, as he should continue to outpace the low scoring totals set for him.
Kyle Kuzma Under 1.5 made threes (-165 at bet365)
While my first two picks have targeted players who are stepping up in the postseason, we should also look at players who are falling short of expectations. In this series, I see Bucks forward Kyle Kuzma failing to live up to expectations, both in terms of his opportunities and his resulting stat lines.
Kuzma was one of the more active 3-point threats for Milwaukee this season. However, he has only scored 12 total points in the first two games of this series — including getting shut out in Game 1 — and has yet to hit a single 3-pointer. Even more concerning, he has only even attempted five shots from beyond the arc in the series, less than he did in four of his last six individual regular-season games.
Kuzma’s volume in general has been down a bit this year, averaging just 4.6 3-point attempts and hitting only 33.3% of those shots. That might have Milwaukee looking at other, more efficient options and continuing to give Kuzma only occasional opportunities to contribute from the perimeter.
Kuzma only made 1.5 threes per game in the regular season, and that number is going down in the playoffs, which is why I’m taking the Under on his made threes prop tonight.
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