A Friday matinee in NBA betting will see the struggling Indiana Pacers head to the NBA's most difficult venue, against the excellent Utah Jazz.
Can Indiana pick up a second consecutive win as they look to stay above the line in a tight play-in race? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Pacers vs. Jazz on April 16 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Pacers vs Jazz odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe Pacers-Jazz Friday matinee opened Utah -9.5 at FanDuel, dipped to -9 a couple of times, then this morning stretched to -10, where the line is at 2 p.m. ET. It's two-way point-spread action with a lean toward the Jazz, who are attracting 54 percent of tickets/55 percent of money. The total dipped from 235 to 233, then rose to 233.5, with 66 percent of tickets/53 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePacers at Jazz betting preview
Injuries
Pacers: Doug McDermott SF (Questionable), Myles Turner C (Out), T.J. Warren (Out).
Jazz: Joe Ingles SF (Questionable), Jordan Clarkson PG (Questionable), Udoka Azubuike C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Jazz are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Jazz.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Indiana is currently ninth in the Eastern Conference, four games up on the 10th place Bulls and five on the 11th place Raptors. For as competitive as the backend of the east is, the Pacers' place in the play-in tournament should be safe, especially with Chicago set to miss All-Star Zach LaVine for several games.
For its part, Indiana has played well without Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Turner, who has missed the last five games. Over that stretch, the Pacers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS — albeit against a weak run of teams, as they have faced the Wolves, Magic, Grizzlies, Clippers and Rockets.
Though Utah has slowed down from its historic start, it has maintained a very high level of play. At 7-3 SU over their last 10 games (though just 4-6 ATS in that stretch), the Jazz have extended their lead atop the Western Conference, with the Suns and Clippers trying to keep pace.
Both of the Jazz's super subs, Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles, missed their last game and are questionable for this one. While that depth hit would never be ideal, Utah shouldn't miss Clarkson's role as a microwave scorer or Ingles' knock-down shooting in a matchup against a Pacers defense missing an elite rim protector in Turner. Indiana's defense is middling even when Turner is healthy — without him, Utah's ball movement and offensive efficiency should allow it to handle this one with ease.
PREDICTION: Jazz -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
We get a fairly high total for this one, with Utah's elite offense coming together against a good-not-great Pacers offense. Utah's 26-28-1 O/U mark on the season is more a reflection of its excellent defense than any issues scoring, and that will again be the case here as the Over/Under will come down to Indiana's offense.
Everything the Pacers do on the offensive end surrounds Domantas Sabonis, who averages the second-most touches per game in the NBA. Sabonis works from the elbow as a facilitator, initiator and scorer. However, for all his faults, Rudy Gobert will be able to make life difficult for Sabonis in this one, with the length to disrupt passes, the intelligence to stay active in pick-and-rolls and with enough strength to not allow Sabonis to post him up.
In their first matchup, in February, Gobert limited Sabonis to just two assists and nine rebounds, with 20 points on 37 percent shooting before fouling out— a departure from Sabonis' season averages of six assists and 11.5 rebounds per night with 19.9 points on 52 percent shooting.
With Indiana's offensive hub in a tough matchup, we cannot count on the Pacers to do their part.
PREDICTION: Under 235 (-110)
Player prop pick
To emphasize our faith in Gobert's ability to mitigate Sabonis' impact in this one, let's acknowledge how fantastic Indiana's big has played in four games without Turner (they both missed Indiana's win over Minnesota). The two-time All-Star has been a force, averaging 38.25 points + rebounds + assists in that four-game sample. If the Pacers' shooters are knocking down shots, Sabonis is a threat to top that total in any game, as he is so involved in everything as a facilitator, in addition to the buckets he gets.
Barring an incredibly hot night from Indiana's perimeter players, however, it's difficult to project Sabonis to top his total in this one, with Gobert more than able to limit his offensive production as well as his impact on the glass.
PREDICTION: Domantas Sabonis Points + Rebounds + Assists Under 33.5 (-115)
Pacers vs Jazz betting card
- Jazz -9.5 (-110)
- Under 235 (-110)
- Domantas Sabonis Points + Rebounds + Assists Under 33.5 (-115)
Picks made on 04/15/2021 at 6:30 p.m. ET.
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