The Minnesota Timberwolves are peaking just in time for a postseason charge, and they’ll put their eight-game win streak on the line tonight against the banged-up Indiana Pacers.
Indiana will be without Pascal Siakam — and possibly Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner too — so my Pacers vs Timberwolves predictions favor a Minnesota team putting pressure on those above it in the West.
Get a closer look at this Monday, March 17 showdown with my NBA picks and betting angles before the 8 p.m. tip.
Pacers vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet: Rudy Gobert Over 9.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ hot streak has been punctuated by some vintage Anthony Edwards highlights, but it’s worth noting that the defense has had standout performances, too. Minnesota has held four of its last eight opponents to 104 points or fewer.
Rudy Gobert has been a big part of that stingy run, and I’m wagering on another productive day for the Frenchman on the glass. The uptick began last month for Gobert, who averaged 12.4 rebounds per game in February, and he’s finished with at least 10 in eight of his last 11 games.
Tonight, he faces an Indiana Pacers offense that’s at its best in a run-and-gun tempo — and more Indiana possessions mean more work for Gobert, who had 14 boards in his last outing against the Pacers. He should feast against the visitors’ depleted frontcourt, and the Over on 9.5 rebounds offers real value.
Even with Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner available, Indiana was outrebounded 45-32 by the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday, so this is a real weakness for the visitors, who may be forced to play some smaller lineups here.
With Minnesota’s strong perimeter defense, Gobert can camp out in the paint, and I expect him to gobble up misses on both ends of the floor. He’s averaging 3.5 offensive rebounds per game, so don’t be surprised if he’s active off the Wolves’ 3-point barrage too.
Most of all, though, this is a bet on the hosts’ defense showing up and stifling an Indiana team that’s rarely as dangerous when Haliburton is sidelined or limited.
Pacers vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Rudy Gobert Over 9.5 rebounds
Timberwolves -7.5
Donte DiVincenzo Over 11.5 points
Given the teams’ respective records, the 7.5 line might seem a little high here at first glance, but the Wolves arrive with a clean bill of health and they’re 6-2 against the spread in their last eight. In contrast, the Pacers could be missing four of their five starters and haven’t covered the spread in any of their past six contests.
The head-to-head trends tell a similar story, with Minnesota winning the last six meetings and covering the spread in five of those matchups, and I’m laying the points with the hosts here, even on the second night of a back-to-back set.
I’m also grabbing the Over on the Donte DiVincenzo points prop. He’s gone past this 11.5 number in seven of his last nine games, and he’s shooting 49% from 3-point range in March.
Even with Mike Conley set to return from a rest day, I see DiVincenzo getting enough clean looks against an Indiana defense that gave up 126 points to the Bucks last time out. He’s attempted at least eight 3-pointers in five of his last nine games.
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Pacers vs Timberwolves odds
Pacers vs Timberwolves live odds
Pacers vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +3.5 (-110) | Minnesota -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana +135 | Minnesota -160
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Pacers vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Wolves are 20-14 at Target Center this season and have won four in a row at home.
- The Pacers have dropped five of their past six road games and are just 16-19 SU on their travels this year.
- While the Under is 7-3 in Indiana’s last 10 games, the visitors rank in the Top 10 in points per game and field-goal percentage.
- The Over is 38-31 for Minnesota this season but 5-5 in its last 10 outings.
Pacers vs Timberwolves trend
The Timberwolves have cashed the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 33 contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Pacers vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Monday, 3-17-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN-Indiana, FDSN-North |
Pacers vs Timberwolves latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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