Pelicans vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Pels Continue Scoring Sprints

The New Orleans Pelicans have exceeded expectations of them without Zion Williamson the last few weeks, going 5-2 in his two absences since late December, but continuing that will get much more difficult tonight. The Boston Celtics have played so well early this season that not even Brooklyn’s recent 12-game winning streak could knock the Celtics out of the top spot in the East.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Pelicans at the Celtics on January 11, with tip set for 7:30 ET.

Pelicans vs Celtics best odds

Pelicans vs Celtics picks and predictions

An odd trend has emerged while New Orleans has been playing without Zion Williamson for much of the last three weeks. The Pelicans start games well, very well. They led the Nets by 12 at halftime this week. They hung 75 on Houston in the opening half the game before that. New Orleans has scored 64 or more points in the first half in five of the seven games Williamson has missed.

Some of those came against the Spurs (65 points on Dec. 22) or the aforementioned Rockets, but for the most part, the Pelicans have been doing this against defenses comparable to Boston’s. No, really.

On the season, the Celtics have the No. 9 defensive rating, per statmuse.com. The Nets have the No. 8, and the Thunder are at No. 12. Both the Wizards and the Pacers are within the Top 20, not exactly glamorous but not laughable, either. Narrow the metric to more-recent timing, given that New Orleans’ results are all relatively recent, and the defensive quality stands out further.

In teams’ last 10 games, Boston has the No. 6 defensive rating. Brooklyn has the No. 2, and Oklahoma City comes in at No. 5. Washington is at No. 7, with the Pacers hanging out at No. 15.

The Pelicans averaged 63.75 points per first half against those five teams.

Things tend to fall apart for New Orleans in the second half, at least comparatively. If looking at a second half with expectations based on the first, the Pelicans exceeded them only once in the seven games without Williamson. Two could be considered pushes, while four times big leads have been jeopardized.

This 5-2 record without Williamson has been built on the back of strong offensive performances before halftime, particularly against strong defenses. Whatever buttons Pelicans’ head coach Willie Green is pressing in pregame, they work, and here’s betting he presses them again tonight.

My best bet: Pelicans first half team total Over 53.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Pelicans vs Celtics spread analysis

New Orleans has gone 5-2 ATS without Williamson since he first hit the injury report on Dec. 22 but only 1-2 ATS against teams currently with winning records, including two ATS losses this week against Brooklyn and at Dallas. Covering the spread against Indiana on Boxing Day inspires less faith.

Tonight’s healthy spread of -9 or -9.5 will require the Celtics to win by double digits to continue the rough week for Pelicans’ backers, but then again, Boston has won by 12 or more four times since Dec. 23. 

Pelicans vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

The total of 231 leans into believing the Pelicans will drive early scoring, but it is also a good bit higher than recent New Orleans’ totals of 227.5 at Washington and 223 at Dallas. The former may have simply been a reflection of the Wizards’ offense (No. 22 in offensive rating this season), and the Pelicans were on the second-half of a back-to-back at Dallas.

Furthermore, totals are frequently this high for Boston, averaging a pregame total of 234 in its last three games.

Pelicans vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Over is 6-1 in New Orleans’ last seven road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Celtics.

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