The New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings were both active at the trade deadline, shipping away some critical pieces of their respective starting lineups, and the path forward will continue taking shape when they meet on Saturday night out west.
With the road team missing a big part of its defense and Sacramento’s prospects on offense looking up following the trade deadline, our Pelicans vs. Kings predictions will explain why the outlook for offense here is quite strong.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Saturday, February 8.
Pelicans vs Kings prediction
My best bet
Over 238.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Sacramento Kings’ trade of De’Aaron Fox wasn’t a huge surprise given the way this team has played over the last month or so, and getting Zach LaVine back in return can’t be taken as one either.
This is a team which has focused on scoring in the mid-range to a painstaking end, and LaVine should help pad its volume outside the arc while sacrificing little on defense. When he eventually settles in, he will be joined in the backcourt by Malik Monk, who’s earned a larger role with arguably the best production on this team next to Domantas Sabonis.
It couldn’t come a moment too soon, either, considering Sacramento ranks 28th on the defensive end over the last two weeks and just 20th offensively. The Kings have been the fourth-worst 3-point shooting team over that span while its 3-point defense ranks fifth-worst. They’ve struggled to contain jumpers of any kind, ranking 21st in mid-range defense, and the lone bright spot on that end has come at the rim.
It’s a complicated game to break down given the Pelicans have also made a sizable change with the departure of Brandon Ingram, though with his replacements yet to join the team we can at least look back at the season splits to see what may happen here.
The New Orleans Pelicans have actually improved by around three points per 100 possessions offensively without Ingram, taking many more shots at the rim and from three, and while it was better inside with Ingram this team shot worse from outside in his minutes.
The Kings’ frontcourt defense continues to shine, ranking seventh over the last two weeks, but with their poor performance against the three there’s reasonable hope here that the Pelicans can score the ball.
On the flip side, Ingram’s biggest impact came in the mid-range, where he helped this defense by a whopping 12 percentage points, and that’s a disaster scenario against a team which still heavily features long two-point shots even in a post-Fox world.
We’ve seen enough out of Sacramento this season to know not to trust this defense, and as it yields some three-pointers to a solid shooting team I believe it will play up to the high pace of the Pelicans. They should keep pace, however, with one of the best mid-range defenders in the game now off the roster – and I’m expecting plenty of points as a result.
Pelicans vs Kings same-game parlay
Over 238.5
Zach LaVine Over 22.5 points
Zion Williamson Over 4.5 assists
We did stress the importance of Zach LaVine as it pertains to helping the Kings shoot better from outside, but he does fit the type of basketball which the Kings like to play. He’s still in the top 10% of wings in shot frequency in the long mid-range with a solid 40% hit rate on those attempts, so in chorus with some excellent outside shooting he should have the chance to break out in a big way here.
The Pelicans have ranked just 21st against the 3 and 29th against mid-range shots over the last two weeks, and now without Ingram’s help defensively LaVine should fly and improve upon his 22 points last time out.
On the other side of the ball, Zion Williamson should be in line for a huge night against a Kings team which has allowed the second-most assists per 100 possessions in the last 14 days. He should have the ball in his hands all night, given he leads this team with a 1.63-point bump in Usage Rate with Murray off the floor, and as he encounters some turbulence when trying to score inside he should dish the rock and find his third 5-assist game in four tries.
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Pelicans vs Kings odds
Pelicans vs Kings live odds
Pelicans vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +7.5 (-110) | Sacramento -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New Orleans +235 | Sacramento -290
- Over/Under: Over 238.5 (-110) | Under 238.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pelicans vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread has hovered right around the opening number of seven, briefly dipping a half-point and moving a full point in the other direction over the past 12 hours.
- The Pelicans make up 50% of the spread tickets and 53% of the handle.
- The total made an initial move up to 238.5 before falling by a point early Saturday morning and returning to that same number in the afternoon.
- The Over has accounted for 53% of the handle despite commanding just 44% of the bets.
Pelicans vs Kings trend
The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+9.55 Units / 28% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Kings.
How to watch Pelicans vs Kings
| Location | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 2-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | GCSEN, NBCS-California |
Pelicans vs Kings latest injuries
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